A few hours after the launch of temporary elimination for all retention of agriculture, Producers were activated to cereals. The dollars still did not appear in the market but sources from the export sector anticipated the scope that wait for a jump in the liquidation during the next few days. Purchases from China grow and prices rise less than expected. If the drop in the dollar deepens, it could liquefy part of the benefits and delay sales.
The Government activated its emergency plan on Monday to stop the climb of the dollar and The Central Bank Reservations Sangria That at the end of last week it sold more than US $ 1 billion on three wheels so that the wholesale exchange rate does not break the roof of the band.
With an eye on the October elections, Javier Milei played his silver bullet and got the support of Donald Trump That activated the United States Treasury Secretary, Scot Besent, to support the economic plan and undertakes to provide assistance through its fund. The confidence signal collapsed the dollar price and began a rally of shares and bonds, the country risk returned to the 1,000 points.
All this happened without the United States depositing a single dollar in Argentina. Even so, a month is missing for the elections and In the Casa Rosada they know that the exchange pressure can hit the door again before the October 27 elections. That is why they bet that the temporary elimination of retentions increases the supply of foreign exchange in the market.
Exporters will accelerate settlement
With the benefit already on the table, Sources of the export sector anticipated the scope that they expect an improvement in the liquidation of currencies in the next wheels. It is a central point in the Government’s emergency plan because beyond the sales volume of the Central Bank last week, what was noted is the almost total conferences in the wheels.
“The liquidation will grow, but the magnitude It will depend a lot on producer’s confidence In what may happen with the dollar, if the producer believes that the exchange rate in November is going to jump more than what the benefit of withholdings will not sell, it will not sell, ”explained an unappealable source of the export sector.
The Government put a roof: U $ 7,000 million to reach that volume in the few days left of September and all October, the liquidation of the same month of the previous year would be practically tripled, when about US $ 2,500 million turned to the market. In the sector they ensure that There was no pre -agreement with the Governmentjust some consultation of officials of the Ministry of Economy on the day prior to the announcement.
Producers, prices and purchases of China
In dialogue with scope, the agricultural consultant Javier Preciado Patiño explained that This Tuesday the producer’s sales to exporter were reactivated And that a lot of new soy of the next campaign was scored, that is, soybeans that was not even sown, which opens a sign of questions about whether it is a trend that can be extended until October 31.
The price reacted on Monday, but a total transfer of the temporal benefit is not seen. Instead of 26%, the price for the producer rose around 15%. The world already took the pulse of the “Soya Dollar” cutting measures in Argentina. China, who for the commercial conflict is not buying soy to the United States, accelerated its purchases and that pushed the price down.
The wholesale dollar closed Tuesday’s wheel around $ 1,369, more than $ 100 below Friday. From now on, a fine balance will be activated, If the exchange rate continues to fall, it will also sink the local price of soybeans and will make the temporal benefit less attractive. Something that obviously could once again retract the foreign currency offer.
Source: Ambito
