For sixth consecutive month I intervened to placate expectations about the exchange rate. The position of the BCRA in futures is monitored by the financial market to glimpse not only the official action but also to evaluate the different monetary impacts.
Somehow the Central Bank (BCRA) again confirmed what the market had been warning throughout the turbulent days lived in the exchange market during the past month in the future operations of dollar. According to official information, The BCRA closed August with a position sold more than US $ 5,088 million, which implies an increase of more than 33% compared to the previous month. Besides, This is the sixth consecutive month that the BCRA intervenes in the future dollar in order to re-consider exchange expectations and appease financial assaults.
It should be noted that the level of last month’s intervention is not only the major of the Milei era but the highest since July 2022. At the end of last month, the BCRA was with short positions sold for US $ 5,097.21 million YU $ S9 million in long positions, which gives a net position of US $ 5,088.21 million.
It should be remembered that, in the day prior to the closure of last month, the dollar in the cash market (spot) had fallen more than 1% in what was another wheel of very high volume and expansion of the amount of dollar futures contracts (which is called “open interest”) and that the MEP dollar rose after the closure of the wholesale market $ 10 above the cash. This was the prelude to the expiration of the futures in August, in which the BCRA maintained its selling position in the market, with a total open interest growth of US $ 268 million (of which US $ 101 million corresponded to the future contract of May 2026, which had the second wheel of greater volume and fourth of greater expansion of open interest of that contract). So that, At an end of the month wheel, the total opening interest of dollar futures in the A3 market (former Rofex Matba Mae) amounted according to how the monetary entity in the “role” of its remaining position of futures August (the open interest of that contract was US $ 1,838 million). In this way, market expectations were met that, although they projected a position sold, at least US $ 6,000 million, still had the last wheel to reduce it, which finally happened and the BCRA confirmed with the published data.
Futures: a market that concentrates the greatest attention
Now, why so much attention to this market and in particular with the actions of the BCRA: because it is a financial derivative market, as is the case of the operation of a dollar future contract, which is agreed, in this case, it is a price of the dollar at the end of the month of the contract, so, if the price of the dollar counted at the end of that month is above the one set in the contract, the seller must compensate for the buyer for the buyer, in pesos, vice versa So, if the BCRA sells future dollar and if the market counts closes above the price of the future market, in that case the monetary entity must pay the difference. I mean, You must issue weights to face the current contracts. That is why so much interest in this market today, precisely, because if this situation occurs then the BCRA must issue yes or yes.
It should be noted that it already happened in July and according to market estimates, the BCRA would have lost between $ 250,000 and 300,000 million, so if in August, with a higher level of contracts sold there was the same situation, the BCRA would have to issue more weights for these exchange interventions. Therefore, These operations not only have a goal of placating devaluative expectations but also entail a potential monetary impact, at a time when the BCRA seeks by all means to contract the amount of pesos available in the economy, for inflation and exchange fears, in the middle of the electoral bid. It is worth noting that therefore these interventions do not imply delivery of reserves by the BCRA, but that they are rates arbitration operations and therefore the positions are compensated, or rather, the bets of each side.
The BCRA spares no resources when intervening
Recent history shows that the BCRA had resumed interventions in the dollar futures market past when the month closed with a position sold of almost US $ 376 million that then increased in April Au $ S409 million already with the new agreement closed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the new exchange scheme of bands. Then In May and in June it began to play stronger raising the positions sold at the close of each month Au $ 1,916 million YU $ 1,910 million, respectively. What speaks to the clear of the fluctuations that began in the second quarter of 2025 since they almost quadrupled the average sold positions of the month with respect to the first quarter of the year. But, Last July, in the midst of political and economic noises, waiting for the approval of the program’s goals with the IMF that took place almost at the end of the month, the interventions rose in tone. Market estimates were that the BCRA had operated about US $ 5,000 million, amid the collapse generated by the disarmament of the Lefi and its subsequent correlation on interest rates in pesos. It is worth remembering that the IMF itself in the Goals Review Report had indicated that the position would be around US $ 5,000 million during July, which implied an increase of about US $ 3,000 million in relation to the last one informed by the BCRA. What the analysts understood is that although the BCRA had a position sold of more than US $ 5,000 million, that would have been last day and that on the 31st the monetary entity would have closed a large part of the open positions and therefore reported that Julio had closed with US $ 3,812 million sold in the future.
The official numbers make it clear that the economic team spares no resources when intervening and placating any type of future devaluation expectation, validating the idea that the official dollar did not touch the ceiling of the exchange band, so as to adjust the implicit rates to reestablish the attraction of the attractiveness of the “Carry Trade”which did not achieve in September.
It should be remembered that the IMF considered in its latest report that the use of futures to intervene in the market should not replace other monetary policy tools for the management of liquidity and interest rates, while warning for the quasi -fiscal cost for the BCRA.
To have a dimension of the fire power that the BCRA has in the futures markets, the internal regulation of the operation in the A3, the monetary entity may be sold in the future dollar for up to the equivalent au $ 9,000 million, of course this limit can be modified discretionally.
Source: Ambito
