Labor market
Iab expects less unemployed in the coming year
At the same time, the number of employed people will also fall. That sounds contradictory, but can be explained.
In the coming year there could be less unemployed and fewer employees. The Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research assumes this in its forecast for 2025 and 2026.
Specifically, the number of employed people will increase by 10,000 in the current year, but in 2026 by 20,000. In unemployment, the experts for the current year assume a plus of around 160,000, and in the course of 2026 there will be “returning for the first time”.
The background to the apparently contradictory development is the demographic change: “The shortage of the labor market attracts that the departure of the baby boomers can no longer be compensated for,” explains Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research area forecast and overall economic analyzes.
Local shortage brakes
In principle, the IAB expects an economic revival from the federal government’s financial packages. In 2025, the growth of real gross domestic product is 0.2 percent, for 2026 of an increase of 1.1 percent. However, the employment effects outgoing would be limited by the fact that there are fewer potential workers.
“The opportunities for an employment structure are very limited compared to previous record increases,” says Weber. At least with the social security contributions, the IAB expects a further increase of 40,000 each in the current and coming year to 34.98 and 35.02 million people through part -time employment. In contrast to the number of workers, civil servants, independent and marginal employees are not included.
Big differences between the economic sectors
However, the work is shifting between the areas of the economy. “The upheavals of the transformation in connection with a weak foreign trade due to US customs policy put pressure on the manufacturing business in particular,” says Weber. For 2025, a strong decline in employment of 130,000 people is therefore expected for this industry, and a further decline of 70,000 people for 2026.
In the area of public service providers, upbringing, health, the IAB, on the other hand, assumes 210,000 additional positions in 2025 and 130,000 in 2026. This is mainly due to the expansion of childcare care and the aging of society.
dpa
Source: Stern
