Consulted by Scopethe economist Amilcar Collante He stated that “the details are missing, but it is clear that it gives a very strong support” to the management of Javier Milei, because “The risk of default of debt goes down “ and mentioned that Last Friday “there was a chance of a spiralization of the crisis”.
From his perspective, “the point is why the Argentine government uses this opportunity: If you will make a change in the economic program looking more in the long termor wants to force a scheme that has already been exhausted And he gave everything he could give. “
In line, in a recent report by the Puente consultancy it was stated that “the message reflects an unusual level of support, with the US Treasury willing to explicitly support the Milei stabilization program.”
“This unexpected support reinforces the president’s political position, relieves financial pressures in the previous electoral and Open the door, after October, to deepen changes such as the lifting of the exchange controls“They added.
The elections and the purchase of reservations
In a complementary way, Outlier’s partner, Gabriel Caamañohe said to this media that “the main announcement remains that there is a support or rescue by the United States Treasury, and that this is an important support in the economic and political with the government.”
Considered that “Then we will have to see what is the result of the elections And how everything is rearmed from there, but at least a transit will be made to these hottest elections. “He explained that” now the instrumentations are known), but also mentioned that “a key signal is whether the treasure will begin or not to buy dollars.”
And he deepened: “If that begins to happen, it seems to me that everything is reinforced by the positive. And if that does not begin to happen, the market will begin to say, ‘Why are we taking this new opportunity?’ If the treasure begins to buy, It seems to me that many of those doubts dissipate and everything flows much more naturally“
In line, ACM economist, Francisco Ricto, explained to Scope that “beyond being the magnitude of this ‘rescue’, It is important that some reservations accumulation policy be resumed by the commitments that Argentina has onwards“
And he added: “We talk about US $ 18,000 million for 2026For example. I believe that the January payment, although there were still resources to guarantee it, was not put into discussion, but the payments later. “
In this sense, he estimated that “if he continues like this, with the exchange rate down, There is a great opportunity to start a strong purchase process either from the treasure or BCRA and therefore accumulate reserves. “
Uncertainty is maintained
For its part, the analyst Christian Buter He explained to this media that the announcement of the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, “It was an extension to the tweet on Monday “. On this point, he mentioned that while the mention of the SWAP for US $ 20,000 million “Give some peace of mind”is still in negotiation. “The agreement is not. If not, they had announced it, but something had to announce. ”
On the other hand, the passage echoed where Besent He announced that the US Treasury will buy Argentine bonds under certain conditions, and said that “leaves it as something very open “because “He does not mention that there is a bond repurchase program, much less.”
“Today something needed to be more concrete than Monday’s tweet. This improved it, but we continue with a high degree of uncertainty,” he synthesized Buteler.
Doubts about the Swap with China
In his latest report, Epyca stressed that “the details” of the agreement are still unknown, between which he mentioned the interest rate, the repayment period and the specific mechanism. Anyway, they considered that “It will be one that does not have to go by authorization by Congress Lawan institutional problem derived from the lack of ability to make lla “policy.
In addition, they mentioned that it is not known “What political conditioning will have (This in general is not made public, but it happens, whether the United States, China or the IMF). “On this point, the director of Epyca, Martin Kaloshe referred to one of the conditions that Trump’s administration could demand: the end of the swap with China.
“Today there are US $ 18,000 million activated in international reserves for the SWAP with China. If the US government wants the country to get rid of that swapArgentina has to pay $ 15,000 million, get them out of their reservations. You don’t have much, how do you really reinforce reservations? “Kalos wondered.
At the moment, the government denied that there is that possibility. On the morning of Monday, the chief of cabinet, Guillermo Francos, He ruled out that the economic agreement with the US will hinder the relationship with China and minimized the supposed conditions of Washington.
“China is not going to be hindered, nor the United States government will propose a thing in that regard,” said the official in radial statements about an eventual resignation of the Chinese swap. As for the supposed Washington’s demands, Franks clarified “that there was none.”
Source: Ambito
