Thus it is understood that the treasure is willing to demonstrate its firepower with Argentina after the October elections and not before: To provide the government with an additional tool that allows navigating the tumultuous waters of an eventual or hypothetical political defeat and To be able to implement the modifications in the exchange rate with greater strength.
That is, the realization of a financial assistance package, materialized after the elections, obeys a comprehensive preservation logic. Your timely advertisement aims neutralize adverse reactions In markets to electoral results, avoiding abrupt depreciation or capital leaks that would aggravate inflationary dynamics.
Floar has been said: now yes …
Within the framework of Negotiations with the United States Department of the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)The government seems to have clearly interpreted the underlying guidelines in relation to the exchange band regime. Far from mere technical recommendations, a clear demand is perceived: maintain the current scheme to the legislative elections of October, and then proceed to an immediate flotation of the official exchange rate.
This sequence, which implies The suppression of interventions in the single and free market (Mulc)They understand that not only seeks to fortify the net reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), but also respond to A “strategic redesign” To conjure turbulence in a context of high political exposure.
As mentioned, two former IMF directors spoke in the last hours. GOPINATH GITAformer deputy director of the IMF, insisted on the urgency of a “More flexible exchange rate and accumulate reservations” For Argentina. Its observations, contextualized in an examination of the local economic situation, endorse the progression towards less rigid exchange frames, in harmony with the trajectory delineated by the Executive for the subsequent period to October. This endorsement not only validates gradual flotation, but also Prioritize the accumulation of net reserves such as Pilar for a enduring stabilization.
Alejandro Werner’s word, the alter ego of the IMF
In tune with this perspective, the analysis of Alejandro Wernerformer director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF and current director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, emphasizes that US financial support It must be complemented with a renewed IMF program and conditioned political reforms. Werner warns that, despite the advances in fiscal adjustment and deregulation under the management of Milei, the exchange rate regime and monetary policy were erratic, feeding uncertainty. Explicitly proposes an immediate dollar flotation after the announcement of the support packageduring a moment of financial strength, to avoid the exhaustion of reserves in the defense of pre -electoral bands.
Additionally, the need for a disinflation strategy based on traditional monetary policya floating exchange rate and transparent rules for the accumulation of reserves.
Werner also underlines the parallel political challenge: after the poor performance of freedom advances in the local elections of this month, which precipitated an exodus of investors, Milei must Transit your disruptive outsider profile towards a pragmatic coalition builderconsolidating a cohesive center-right movement.
Werner argues that this turn is imperative “given the persistence of Peronism as a viable force” and a fragmented congress that limits the maneuvering margin. The support package should condition its disbursements to the parliamentary approval of a multiannual budget, a tax reform and the autonomy of the BCRAissuing a sign that the commitment to fiscal responsibility, market principles, the rule of law and transparent financial policies transcends the individual leader.
Greater political volume, new cabinet and a good relationship with the governors
In this sense, Washington expressed an explicit understanding that Milei’s governance It depends on the forge of broad political consensusparticularly with provincial governors and Congress. Sources close to the Executive indicate that US authorities, through figures such as Treasury Secretary Scott Besent, urged a greater political integrationsuggesting the incorporation of allies in the cabinet and the creation of dialogue tables to coordinate electoral campaigns and key legislative reforms, such as tax, labor and budget 2026 with zero deficit rule.
This vision, which does not imply a radical change in the power structure but a “Greater political volume”align with the financial support of the United States, reinforcing the idea that Economic stability will only be consolidated through alliances that guarantee majorities in both chambers to advance the reformist agenda. It is then expected that in the next few hours, President Javier Milei emphasizes his relationship with the opposition, evolving towards a more inclusive dialogue that facilitates minimum consensus.
Executive sources suggest that such adjustments could materialize in Imminent cabinet restructuringincorporating profiles with greater negotiating aptitude and technical expertise to build bridges in an atomized legislative.
If this road map is executed precisely, in the government they understand that not only would the expectations of international creditors be met, but that a turning point could rush into the structural adjustment agenda, transmuting electoral volatility.
Rates and tender
In tune with this external support, The BCRA initiated a flexibility of its monetary policyreducing interest rates in simultaneous operations in 10 percentage points to place them in 25%, which marks the beginning of a relaxation after the announcement of financial assistance by the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent.
This move, which decreased the BCRA taker posture in the byma and accelerated the fall of the short -term rates, generated an immediate impact on the instruments in pesos, with the caution at one day collapsed to 22.5% from the previous 33%. At the same time, it was recorded A record flow of agricultural liquidations that relieves pressure on the corporate sectorbeaten by high rates in weeks of volatility.
Analysts emphasize that this peso curve extended its rise, with major premiums in the long -term sections – around 4% -, followed by settings in fixed rates of 2.5%and dual 1.5%, in a context where the absence of a formal reference rate is compensated with clear signs via simultaneous wheel.
Today, the Treasury Debt Bidding –With a refinancing of $ 5.6 billion in lecaps, boncaps and a dollar linked title with post -election maturity in November 2025, January, April 2026 and January 2027 – it is expected to validate These lower ratesdelineating a path of yields for ciones, bonds and letters until October 26, and channeling flows to instruments of longer duration or exchange coverage instead of an accelerated dollarization, all enhanced by the suspension of retentions that reinforces the transitory economic relief.
Source: Ambito
