When asked about this subject, Ariel TejeraGrassi SA analyst, highlighted Scope That before doing any analysis it is imperative to remember that “retention is a very unfair load for the local producer and should not exist” and added that “the immediate effect of the suspension was positive for all the actors involved.”
According to Tejera, “the Government sacrificed tax collection to obtain an accelerated flow of dollar income and to contribute tranquility in the market in a context of great pre -election volatility. ” “Whenever a tax is lowered, even if it is temporarily, all those linked to that tax win,” he added.
In his vision, the key was in the abrupt improvement of the ability to pay the export sector. The elimination of export rights, even for a fewAs, allowedor offer significantly higher prices to producers. That improvement can continue to have effects even beyond October. ”
In addition, he explained that “it is possible that the best prices we saw remained forward, because the exporters scored a lot of merchandise under this scheme and now they will have to originate it.” “That implies that, although the aliquots returned, there will be incentives to sustain firm values in the domestic market,” he said.
At the same time, he warned that this dynamic generates a financial challenge for companies in the sector, since “exporters entered dollars and now must meet the DJVE with effective purchases.” “That implies an important financial cost and can limit your ability to pay in the future. It will be necessary to see how much that weighs in the structure of the agro -exporters and how it conditions their offers in the coming weeks,” he said.
For the consultant and market analyst, Pablo Adreanithere is a key international component that greatly explains the outcome of this measure. As explained in dialogue with scope, the pressure of the US Secretary of State Scott Besent It was decisive. “He conditioned the loan of US $ 20,000 million to Argentina to eliminate the temporary suspension of withholdings. The American Soy Association pressed so that a country that afterands competes exporting soy to China”He said.
China, in parallel, began to import soybeans and soybean flour, a movement that for Adreani worked as a geopolitical message towards Washington. That play lit alarms in the United States and accelerated the decision to close the fiscal window in Argentina.
On the domestic level, Adreani highlighted the role of exporters and explained that “thanks to them the quota of US $ 7000 million could be reached, but with a very high financial risk, because those statements now have to meet effective merchandise purchases.”
The consultant also detailed the scheme to which the country returned after the closing of the benefit: 26% of withholdings for soybeans, 24.5% for flour and oil, and 9.5% for corn and wheat. The immediate consequence was the pandRedida of the price differential that had been achievedor since “the value of soy had risen US $ S60 with zero retention, but I do not see to recover that level again. The need for the industry will hold firm prices, but uncertainty dominates and I do not think there is a lot of supply volume on these first wheels.”
Adreani stated that the challenge is now double: on the one hand, fulfill the commitments assumed by exporters; On the other, process the reaction of the producers, who will have to decide whether they retain merchandise waiting for better prices or if they sell in a market where the stimulus has already disappeared.
Meanwhile, David Miazzoeconomist and head of Data Miazzo, I assure in dialogue with the scope that “the government error was not limited by the statements to 180 days and let exporters can buy existing soy or the new campaign. Now the fear of producers lies in whichl Beingat the price they will paybecause exporters will not be hurried to buy grains to process. Another point will be to see who bought and those who will not, because some will have greater payment capacity than others within the industry. ”
Urgent dollars and an exchange rate under control
Beyond the sectoral discussions, the measure fulfilled the objective that the Government had drawn: to accelerate the entry of dollars and give a respite to the Central Bank. In just 72 hours, $ 7000 million were secured in DJVE, which allowed to strengthen reservations and show the exchange market a sign of strength.
In a context of high pre -election volatility, with the fresh memory of exchange episodes in previous years, the Casa Rosada He achieved what he was looking for: control the price of the dollar and avoid sudden jumps at a delicate political moment. It is real that the government sacrificed collection, but won POL airostic and financial and succeeded by lowering taxes.
WHAT IS COMING: EXPECTATION IN THE GRAIN MARKET
With reinstalled export rights, the focus now goes to market behavior. The producers face the dilemma of selling at prices that lost part of the plus of the last days or retaining waiting for the need for exporters to translate values again.
Exporters, on the other hand, have ahead of the challenge of originating the merchandise committed to the DJVE in a context of higher costs and with the obligation to sustain the flow of foreign exchange that the government needs to keep the dollar at bay.
The key will be in chow that tension is balancing. The best prices could be sustained, although with financial limits and hardly recovers the jump of US $ 60 in a matter of hours, therefore, uncertainty will be the dominant feature.
But thinking in the future, it is important to remember that in all types of productive processes the predictability. This type of short -term measures can have a positive effect, but they never change the logic of the business and in a country with a long history of pendular policies for agriculture, This week’s experience worked more as a reminder of that fragility than as a structural change.
Already at the international level and with a very evident geopolitical background, with the dispute between the United States and China as a backdrop, it is clear that Argentine agro -export policy must also contemplate not only what happens in Buenos Aires either Rosarybut also what is discussed in Washington and Beijing.
Finally and beyond what happens within the agricultural sector, it is key to remember that despite all these tensions the government managed to strengthen reservations and control the value of the dollar (and its possible step to inflation) in the middle of the electoral regressive account. That was the goal and it was clearly achieved, the rest is a matter of analysis and debate that will continue during the next weeks.
Source: Ambito
