All regions recorded descents, with Greater Buenos Aires showing the greatest fall. Anyway, the percentages remain above what the market expects.
Inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 37.6% in September, which represents a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to 39.6% registered in August, according to the monthly survey from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT) in conjunction with polyriarchy. At the monthly level, a similar trend was observed, with a Average expectation of 3.84% For the next 30 days.
The median, meanwhile, remained stable at 30%without changes compared to the previous month. This indicator is usually less sensitive to temporary variations and tends to remain motionless for several consecutive months.
By regions, the descent was widespread. He Interior of the country It presented the lowest expectations, with 36.2% (compared to 38.1% of August), followed by the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires with 38.6% (39.2% the previous month) and the Greater Buenos Aires with 40.2% (42.7% in August).
Anyway, it is located above what is estimated by the experts cited in the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank. There, inflation is expected for the next 12 months to be 20.3%, according to the median analysts. If it is by average, that number is 20.8%.
Monthly expectations on decline
The survey also relieved inflation expectations for the next 30 days, a question incorporated since May 2023 that presents higher response rate in high uncertainty contexts.
In September, the monthly expectation was 3.84% on averagewith a median of 3%. This represents a decline compared to August, when the values were 4.21% and 3%, respectively.
Inflation wages consumption
The intercourtile range – difference between the 25 and 75 percentiles – was extended in September, located at 15% for the 25, 30% percentile for median and 50% for the 75th percentile. This expansion indicates greater variability in the opinions of the respondents.
Like the expectation for the next 12 months, the projection relieved by the Finance Research Center (CIF) of the UTDT is above the estimated by the REMthat calculated a monthly inflation of 1.8% for September and 1.7% for October.
The gap between income levels is shrink
Inflation expectations also showed a decrease at both ends of income measurement. In lower income households, the average decreased from 40.6% in August to 38.1% in September, while the median remained at 30%.
Among the highest income, the average fell from 38.9%to 37.4%, with a median also stable in 30%. This way, The gap between both segments was reduced to 0.7 percentage pointscompared to 1.7 points recorded in August.
Source: Ambito
