The University explained that in high volatility contexts, “the measurement of income poverty tends to be less precise.”
After National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) report that poverty fell to 31.6% In the first semester of 2025, the Argentine Catholic University (UCA) issued a statement where it warns that the variation in the index – caught 6.5% compared to the anterior semester and 21.3% comparing it to the number last year – is “overrepresented.
In that sense, UCA emphasizes differentiating the “poverty phenomenon and its measurement instrument“And he explained that in high volatility contexts,” the measurement of income poverty tends to be less precise. “Thus, from the university they emphasized that to analyze the series precisely it is necessary to point out that “although the fall of poverty is real, its magnitude is overrepresented.”
The latest INDEC report, published on Thursday, recorded that 31.6% of Argentines It was located below the poverty line during the First semester of 2025, while 6.9% stood behind the indigence line. This represented a significant fall with respect to the records of the previous semester (38.1% and 11.4%) and even more marked compared to last year (52.9% and 18.1%).
Days ago they had already warned about this overstage. The sociologist and director of the Argentine Social Debt Observatory in the UCA, Agustín Salvia, acknowledged that “there was indeed a decrease in statistical poverty, at this stage poverty will have been around 35%. Those points that fell, From 55% of the 2023 finals, they are 20 points that translate into 8 million people. ”
“Statistically it is true, but we are comparing different price systems prior to devaluation,” argued the sociologist.
Why the UCA points out that INDEC “overrepresented” the variation in the poverty index
In detail, the UCA He points out that, from the latest changes in the INDEC questionnaire in the permanent household survey and the scenario of lower inflation in the last year, a better net collection of labor and non -labor income could be achieved. This progress in measurement, However, “it conditions comparability with previous income, indigence and poverty series.”
Another of the elements that pointed from the university to explain the oversight of the variation in poverty, is the use of basic basic baskets built on the consumption structure of 2004-2005, not updated to the 2017-2018 information. Taking this into account, they highlighted that “for 2024, in a stage of strong recomposition of rates and regulated prices, This outdated limits the measurement capacity to precisely reflect the effective situation of households.
To conclude the message, the UCA He argued that “without ignoring that improvements are evidenced, it is appropriate to notice that official data overrepresent the magnitude of social relief.” In turn, he recommended that to correct this bias, the INDEC should “accelerate the update of the reference baskets, Evaluate the impact of changes in income collection instruments and transparent their effect on historical series“
“Only so You can count on more consistent indicators that account for the achievementsbut that can also more clearly represent the persistence of structural problems of economic, labor and social inclusion in Argentina, “they closed.
Source: Ambito
