It is not just about betting chips, but for forcing the rival to reveal their true letters before compromising major resources. It is a gesture of cunning, where the one who pays first dictates the rhythm of the departure, demanding tests of solidity before exposed to risk. Thus operates, in essence, the current dynamics between Washington and Buenos Aires: the Treasury of the United States, under the baton of Scott Besent, He will not release a penny without the government “paying” with a tangible effort of political consensus. He DISASSEMBLY OF THE POSTELECORTORAL EXCHANGE BANDS does not look like a mere technicalism, but the letter that Javier Milei You must show to unlock the full mallet of the assistance package. Only then, the “lantern” of stability will become a winning hand.
Evidence emerge everywhere. In his speech yesterday at the International Tourism Fair 2025, the president denied any imminent devaluation and reiterated that “the solution is not to return to the catastrophic path of recurrent devaluations.” Free stone for a policy that Washington has put on the magnifying glass because copy, not to doubt, the warnings of the IMF in this matter.
Negotiation begins
On the eve of the October 26 elections, the parallelism of the game acquires dramatic contours. This week, Besent’s technical teams and Minister Luis Caputo They will meet to delineate the contours of the aid package already announcedalthough everything is subject to the verdict of the polls. This preliminary exchange could be closed even before the electoral date, but the authorities in Washington have been categorical: There will be no tangible disbursements until after scrutiny.
The Government navigates between the fiscal urgency and the expectations of a key support from the north. The package prepared by the US Treasury consists of three main variants: a coin swap for US $ 20,000 million to reinforce the reserves of the Central Bank, contingent credit lines that cushion volatilities in emerging markets and direct acquisitions of sovereign bonds in dollars that function as a mattress against unforeseen turbulence.
This architecture, designed to inject liquidity without generating suffocating units, represents a bridge towards normalization, but its full activation of political milestones and reforms that still float in electoral uncertainty. Milei’s statement, pronounced in the last hours, underlines this caution by rejecting the “catastrophic path” of past devaluations, prioritizing a gradual disarmament that avoids inflation traumas and preserves fiscal discipline that, according to him, “is not negotiated.”
See you after October: pending tasks
The core of the tension, however, lies in the relentless temporality: The loan is not available at this time. Sources from the Ministry of Economy confirm that, despite the pressures due to an accelerated currency flow, Washington maintains a calculated caution, prioritizing the post -election consolidation over any hurry. This delayed force to the Executive to accurately balance the immediate commitments – interest paids on external debts and coverage of vital imports – in a scenario where the net reserves of the BCRA brushes alert thresholds.
Postponement not only magnifies volatility in local markets, but questions the viability of the official narrative of a “controlled landing” In full campaign, a speech that Milei has reinforced when warning against the “catastrophic path” of devaluations that, according to him, would only perpetuate instability and stop long -term growth. On the formal plane, Treasury demands broad consensus to boost structural reformsa challenge that forces Milei – the lion of austerity – to assume a more conciliatory role.
Besides, Different evaluations warn that the SWAP alone will not be enough to face debt maturities in 2026 and 2027which could amount to about US $ 37,000 million, leaving the government in the face of an unavoidable dilemma: a jump in the exchange rate, slow disarmament of flotation bands or the return to more severe restrictions on capital mobility.
The commitment assumed by President Milei emerges as the axis of this entanglement: The disarmament of exchange bands once the threshold of the polls is crossed. The current regime, with a floor of $ 946 per dollar and a roof of $ 1,478, confines the official dollar in a narrow corridor that has avoided disruptive leaps, but at the expense of daily interventions of the Central Bank that devour little currencies. This scaffolding, has been branded by experts such as a “conjunctural patch” that clouds price signals and scares authentic capitals.
Both Washington and the IMF have urged their progressive elimination, warning that their persistence perpetuates distortions. At recent dialogue tables, this point has gained prominence as one of the two minimum pillars: the definitive closure of the bands as they work today, along with a specific plan to swell international reservesin a context where access to global market financing is complicated by the rising country.
An advance as a test of love
Even on this path, The Executive has deployed subtle polls to tote some loan advance. Technical teams have established dialogues with elite financial institutions on Wall Street seeking to anchor a pivotal advisor in the restructuring of obligations with private holders. The objective: release an initial slice, a kind of advance, acting as a bridge to the full concretion of the package. However, until now, the replicas have been elusive, an echo of “pay to see” that First demand exchange as a garment of political seriousnessand that links all advances to the accumulation of reserves as a sine qua non condition. The recent measures of the government, such as The acquisition of more than US $ 1,700 million by the BCRA and partial adjustments in the change controls, reveal a cautious approachbut analysts agree that such isolated steps are not enough to anchor the economy without a deeper turn.
The loan, which is glimpsed later, is erected as a promotion of background transformations, a “carrot” of Washington for Milei. Directed by Besent, The support is conditioned on compliance with objectives with the IMFcovering not only the swap, but tools to stabilize the exchange rate and magnetize direct foreign investment. According to the president, this integral design aspires to fracture the endemic crisis loop in Argentina, where exchange instability has been a perennial shackle. Local observers project that, activated, the package could inflate gross reserves, facilitating a gradual unification of the “without burst” exchange market, provided that those minimum budgets that have emerged in the technical rounds are met.
In Tandem, the disarmament of the post -election bands is imposed as the inexcusable boundary. The Government has outlined a transition to a “dirty” flotation, with selective touches of the BCRA endorsed by agricultural and mining dollars. Such turn would not only download the burden on reserves, but would harmonize the country with global canons of monetary clarity. Without this move, the American support could be postponed sine die, since a more lax scheme is perceived as the basis for recovering the faith of the capitals, and to raise reserves to levels that guarantee solidity before external shocks. The internal debate revolves around this crossroads: opt for a more expensive dollar, to drive commercial surpluses and meet the demand for foreign exchange savings, or reinforce barriers to preserve short -term price stability.
Source: Ambito
