The turbulence that the government suffered in economic matters During September they seem to have made a dent about prices. So, Inflation exceeds 2%according to the majority of the consultants. In case of confirming this scenario when the official data of INDEC is known, it would be the first time in five months.
Several analysts highlighted price acceleration during the last section of the month, which coincided with the Strong pressure on the band’s roof exchange and the official announcement of salvage by the US Treasury.
In Eco Gothe most recent estimates indicate that Retail prices increased 2.3% so far this monthwith generalized increases in all categories.
“The first weeks we saw a rebound in inflation in foodwhich tended to stabilize for the end of the month, fuels was another category that showed increasesalso cigarettes and some communications services were addedbut in general we saw small increases in all categories“The consulting company explained Rocío Bisang In dialogue with Scope.
This is the same figure that so far estimated the LCG consultant. In the food and beverage sector, They registered a 0.9% rise In the fourth week of September. In the end -to -end measurement, the increase was 2.3%, while in the monthly average the increase is 1%.
Weekly increases accelerated
For its part, the weekly price index that measures PXQ registered a 0.5% increase in the third week of September. It’s about “A variation superior to that observed in the same period of the previous months”according to the consultant who directs Emmanuel Álvarez Agis.
The most important variations They came from alcoholic beverages and tobaccowith a 1.7%increase, product of Increases in cigaretteswhich jumped 3.3%. Another category that showed important increases was restaurants and hotelswhere the increases in hotels, with an increase of 5.5%. “If this dynamic is maintained, the monthly inflation projection is located around 2.1%, “they added.
In line, ANALYTICS He also measured 2.1% of retail inflation so far in September. In this sense, the director of the consultant, Claudio Capraulohe highlighted to this medium that “Inflation accelerated in the last week. ”
Orlando Ferreres & Associates (OJF) He estimated accumulated inflation of 1.4% in the first two weeks of the month. “The third and fourth week will not give so much. In general, the strongest is the first. With which, with these numbers I would say that we will be around 2% or a little less“He explained to Scope the director of the Center for Studies, Fausto Spotorno.
It is an estimate similar to what they performed since C&Twhere they expect an evolution of prices Around an increase of 2% monthly.
Expectations of City and Inflation
These data represent an increase with respect to the projections made by the market a month ago. According to him Survey of market expectations (REM) that performs the Central Bankthe consensus among analysts was that inflation would be 1.8% in the ninth month of the year, with a sustained decrease that would reach 1.5% in February.
In this sense, next Monday, October 6, the September REM will be known, so a fact to be observed will be if the exchange dynamics of recent weeks, added to the impact of the Donald Trump’s government support, had an impact, had an impact On the expectations of the City.
In turn, the INDEC It will announce the consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, October 14. In case the data is above 2%, It will be the first time it happens from the 2.8% registered in April This year, within the framework of the opening of the exchange rate for human people.
Source: Ambito
