The last official numbers showed that The economy fell in July for the third consecutive month and it was 1.5% below the last peak of February. By August the perspectives were not better, since a greater impact of the jump on interest rates was foreseen.
It is worth remembering that, between mid -July and mid -August, The annual nominal rate of the advances used by companies to finance working capital tripleduntil reaching a 93%roof. Then he began to give in, but until the end of last month he remained in most days above 80%.
Economic activity gave some positive signals in August
Even in this context, the consultant Balancing predicted for the eighth month of the year a positive variation of 0.5% In EMAE, with respect to July. This rebound was explained by an increase of 0.9% in the agricultural sector and 0.5% in the rest of the sectors.
As for agriculture, the improvement was traced by the greater production of corn and milk. Likewise, the rise in EMAE without agriculture was essentially driven by the performance of industry and commerce.
“We all expected that in August I hit the rates more, but there are other effects that countered. The industry, for example, has been falling a lot, with items such as food and drinks that in July were 10% below February. Some rebound were going to have. The situation of commerce is similar, “the Balancia Analyst explained to the field, Gonzalo Carrera.
With a similar calculation, the Foundation of Latin American Economic Research (faithful) estimated a 1% monthly increase for industry manufacturing in the period in question. The entity highlighted the same as “since February it would be transiting a new recessive phase – the 12th since 1980, accumulating an annual fall of 6%”, although the magnitude of this decline is less than that of the previous cases.
“The monthly improvement of seasonality corrected by marks an impasse in the fall, but It is still insufficient to point out the end of deterioration From the industrial activity observed in recent months, “he deepened faithful.
In the same tune, The General Activity Index (IGA) of Orlando Ferreres & Asociados showed a monthly rise of 0.7% For August.
Dollar, rates and elections: uncertainty puts a roof to recovery
Although these favorable projections for last month’s dynamics are fulfilled, The activity would remain about 1% lower than that of February. For the remainder of the year, In balance they do not see a sustained recovery, given political uncertainty, exchange volatility, credit stagnation and low wagesalthough the latter exhibited some improvement since June, after a strong decrease between February and May.
“I see this rebound compatible with a stagnation or fall in the second semester. A monthly data does not make the trend,” said Carrera.
For their part, in Ferreres they warned that “Beyond the rebound, the stage forward is challenging” because “the exchange tensions and the government’s political transpiés increased uncertainty on an economic march that was already lethargic. “
“The movements of the Executive of recent days, achieving explicit support from the United States, served to calm the markets and temporarily remove doubts about sustainability of the economic program, but The march of economic activity seems to have been linked to the October election result“They said.
The traffic light of economic activity of Econviews reflected, as has been happening since Javier Milei is president, an important heterogeneity. On the one hand they highlighted rises in the production of cars and steel, as well as exports and imports, while the vaccine task, the production of flour and the consumption of cement fell.
In parallel, the loan to consumption increased, but at the same time the commercial credits and indicators of deeds and patenting of cars and motorcycles were contracted.
“We do not expect a relevant improvement in the economy from here to October. Uncertainty about elections and also about the sustainability of the exchange scheme freezes the general activity. The recent rate of rates gives some relief to the private sector, but Investment decisions are postponed until after the electionsat which time we will also define whether we are going to a new exchange scheme or not, “said Pamela Morales, an economic analyst.
With a similar perspective, Analytica advanced a faint monthly rebound of 0.1% in August, although they do not project for the third quarter an accumulated improvement.
The government hit the table, but no doubts about the dollar cleared
It is worth remembering that, after Sell US $ 1,100 million to contain the escalation of the official dollarthe government hit the table announcing one and obtaining strong support statements by the American president Donald Trump and his officials.
Nevertheless, Zero retentions have already risengenerating generalized discontent in agricultural producers, There were no more certainties about US monetary assistance and The treasure barely bought 44% of the extraordinary amount of currency that liquidated the field In just five days. Therefore, Doubts about the sustainability of the exchange scheme are far from being dissipated.
Before consulting this media on the panorama of here to the national legislative elections, Matías RajnermanMacroeconomist of the Province Bank, focused on a “counterintuitous” dynamic. “Devaluation expectations for after October can improve some data, especially consumption, because if you think that after the elections things increase, it makes sense to buy them now, as happened in 2023“He explained.
That is why no one is encouraged to guarantee a sustained recovery of the economy. Financial tension appears recurrently in the evaluations of specialists as a factor that puts a brake on consumption and investment decisions until a clearer panorama on the composition of the congress from October and the useful life of the current band regime.
Source: Ambito
