As well as him Government requires the opposition to explain how each bill has to be financed that implies an increase in spending, from the reverse point of view, may be required to The Casa Rosada that applies the same criteria when authorizing a tax reduction, as in the case of withholdings.
It is, in reality, a rise in tax spending. This is called all the exceptions to pay certain taxes that benefit people or companies. These are exemptions that are endorsed by a general law that governs a tax or by promotion mechanisms, as the regime of incentive to large investments (rigi).
In the case of The temporary elimination of retentions is an estimated tax expense at 0.23% of GDP for this year. In other words, it implies the equivalent of about US $ 1.5 billion that would cease to receive the treasury.
That cost of the national state is for a dozen cereal companies anticipate about US $ 7,000 million. Until now the Government has not said how it will counterperse the lowest income of resources, if you plan to do it.
It should be remembered that the 2026 Budget Bill raises a potential closing scenario of 2025. There it is said that the National Public Sector (SPN) will have a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP and a financial one of 0.3%.
According to a report by the Argentine Fiscal Analysis Institute (Iaraf), before the measure, the government expected to collect resources due to the equivalent of 15.75% of GDP and spend by 14.25% of GDP. In relation to 2024, the drop in income would be 0.4 points of the GDP, while the expenses fall 0.75 points.
Now, when resigning more income, this year would have the equivalent of 15.6% of GDP. To maintain the same result, it should now have expenses for 14.09% of GDP. which is equivalent to an adjustment of 0.91 points of the GDP In relation to spending last year.
The iaraf indicates that before the reduction was applied of retentions the government planned to finish 2025 with income of $ 139.21 billion (-2.1% interannual). With the temporary elimination of export rights, income falls to $ 137.93 billion (-3.3% year-on-year).
On the other hand, if you go to the spending column, the government I hoped to erogate about $ 126.02 billion (-0.4% real year). Of these, the indexed expense that adds $ 63.6 billion (+14.3%). If the executive had to correct the Primary expenditure to compensate for loss due to retentions, then it would have to be $ 124.75 million.
On the only space that could operate is in the non -indexed expense, which would have to lose from $ 62.3 billion to $ 61 billion. According to the Iaraf to compensate The salary mass would cut 9.3%, 24.8% social programs; 42% Energy subsidies and 17% direct real investment. With those numbers the government could reach 2025 with a primary surplus of $ 13.1 billion and a financial one of $ 2.58 billion.
But Most likely, the 1.5% surplus is not met as planned. In this case, according to the IARAF the primary would be $ 11.9 billion with a 30% drop compared to 2024, while the financial would be reduced to $ 1.3 billion, with a 61.8% drop in relation to last year.
And keep in mind that these are projections on spending that propose a proportionality between the different components in their behavior in the last four -month period. The Iaraf points out that if proportionality is maintained, for example, the salary mass had a decrease accumulated of 6%in the first eight months of the year so in the last four months it would have to fall 10%, so that the closure of 12 months is a decrease of 7.5%.
Source: Ambito
