With the legislative elections of October 26, The exchange band scheme that has intended to stabilize the financial front with the dollar exhibits deep crackswhich foresees its expiration.
Although its official dismantling is delayed until after the elections, the market dynamics They declare it already obsolete And the exchange gap promises to violate its virtual credibility in the short term, especially if the looks are put on the roof of the band.
The announcement of an American financial support – a swap of up to US $20 billion, acquisitions of sovereign bonds and facilities through the Exchange Stabilization Fund – led to a fleeting relief, with a rebound in the titles in dollars, a slight strengthening of the weight and a moderation in the reference rates of the BCRA. Anyway, for some, This palliative does not hide the endemic fragility of the modelwhich sows uncertainty and hinders the accumulation of net reserves, in a commercial surplus overcrop and decreasing internal demand.
To the elections, The Government would opt for a selective containment tactic, allowing the official dollar to climb to the band’s ceiling —As around $ 1,500 – to decompress accumulated pressures without incurring massive interventions that squanders reserves.
However, the different reports account for Potential characteristics of free post -election flotation. In the facts, a BCRA would imply that would let the dollar freely float, but that would maintain its attentive interest rates policy, sales in futures and the use of reserves only in extreme cases.
Unequivocal signals of unsustainability in the rates curve
The fixed rate curve distills this insolvency with meridian clarity: the Break Even del Dollar, inherent to their sections, delineate an exchange rate that systematically violates the theoretical roof of the band, with projections that exceed the upper threshold in all critical deadlines. This disagreement – learning by the disparity between nominal and real yields, adjusted by projected inflation – not only predicts an inexorable reorganization after October, but also constrains the BCRA to activate its liquid reserves.
The gap between the officer and the one with liquidation (CCL), which has expanded to 10% and marks the highest level since April, ratifies this omen, demonstrating that direct injections may not be enough. For analysts, With a growing gap, it will be a matter of days to see that the ceiling of the exchange band is in the pastor, at least with play only in the single market. The rigidity of the floor now around $ 946 and the roof in the $ 1,500 area, designed to moderate volatility, have become a corset that amplifies distortions.
In this context, the Ministry of Economy has intensified its purchases of dollars through block operations, awarding US $ 500 million on Monday in the MULC, capitalizing the record liquidation of the agro -export sector that reached US $ 4,972 million in just five days. However, they did not translate into an increase in BCRA reserves, illustrating volatility in the execution of these strategies in an environment of high demand for exchange coverage.
BCRA restrictions and containment of the dollar gap
To mitigate the exchange pressure in the final stretch of this liquidation, the BCRA restored key restrictions, seeing the buyers of official dollars the sale in financial markets for 90 days, which truncated the “rulo” that injected offer in the cash with liquidation (CCL) – now consisting of $ 1,482. This measure, implemented to avoid arbitrations between the officer and the financial ones, seeks to reduce the pressure on the official exchange rate just in the final stretch of the liquidation of the dollars committed under the ‘zero retentions’ and allows the treasure to monopolize a greater portion of agricultural currencies.
The previous Friday, the Executive captured 77% of the “AGRODOLUES”, but on Monday the percentage diminished to 44% of the total liquidation, while the MEP climbed at $ 1,472 and the Blue at $ 1,430 in the informal, driven by expectations of dollarization of pre -election portfolios.
BCRA CENTRAL BANK
The consensus of Wall Street: a unique verdict
The scrutiny of Wall Street firms corroborates this diagnosis in a resounding way. Goldman Sachs He defends that the discard of the bands, conjugated with a gradual liberalization of capital controls, is erected as the optimal path to restore external competitiveness and promote the replacement of reserves, overlapping any temporary seam. JP Morgan It predicts that transit to a post -election floating exchange rate would cushion chronic instability and financial risk, enabling a more consistent dynamic of dollars under a veil of fiscal rigor.
For its side, Bank of America He emphasizes that the current armor clashes with any external support, urging a more autonomous and less intervened exchange frame for the American swap not to dissipate. BNP Paribas I inevitable prophesy a “Dirty Float” before or after October, to conjure the rise in real rates and depreciation predictions. Barclaysin tune, underlines the regressive account of the regime by scarce reserves and a bogged GDP, predicting an exchange rate 20-30% more flexible in real terms that “drives the productive machinery and facilitates the collection of dollars.” Morgan Stanley accentuates the vulnerability of the roof.
Source: Ambito
