During the last weeks, access to a Mortgage credit He turned more expensive and complex. In the midst of exchange volatility, the banks uploaded interest rates and tightened financing conditions. It is a scenario that, as this medium had anticipated, It would remain until the October elections. The doubt is whether it is a transient pause or if, directly, the mortgage train has already passed.
When loans were launched in the second semester of 2024, rates were around grape + 5%. Since then, the real rate tripled reaching 15%. This dynamic, added to the instability of the exchange rate, It limits the chances of those who were evaluating the procedures and banks to approve new credits. According to financial institutions, The risk of lending increased and the difficulty in managing liquidity leads them to prioritize more profitable and shorter -term products, Like personal loans. This combination resulted in a hardening of the conditions to approve the mortgage requests.
The Central Bank (BCRA), in tune with what financial entities raise, admitted in a presentation of its vice president, Vladimir Wearningthat there was a “Transitory shock” in interest rates. From the ruling party they insist that it is a normalization process, but the analysts of the sector question that vision: they warn that the alleged transience is questionable and that the rise of mortgage loans could be coming to an end.
Federico González Rouco, Empiria economist, explained to Scope that the increase in rates was gradual but constant: “The banks were raising them gradually and there were already at least six increases so far this year. In the last month, some went from 10% to 15%, but those who remained at 10% directly were out of the market.”
The economist also pointed out that, together with the increase in rates, new access conditions appeared: “Some SCORE requirements were added, such as the National Bank and it is a more filter mechanism. There is an impact on the credit market but there will not be an abrupt fall, because the banks continue to have folders that are already advanced. There was no total closure, but restrictions.”
Rouco, however, warned that the situation could be complicated in the coming months: “Possibly from here to three months, for the summer, let’s see that banks have no folders or almost nothing. The impact for the sector is that those who had been putting together the business or designing their structure based on the mortgage credit must at least rethink it: wait if it is a pause until after the elections or a more durable phenomenon. I lean for the second. ”
“In the third quarter of 2025, many banking entities already apply rates greater than 15 % per year adjusted by grape last months of the year – because the demand contained is latent— Yes, we anticipate that growth will be less than the original projected and will be conditioned by the evolution of interest rates, long -term funding and financial regulations“Sebastián Sosa, president of Re/Max Argentina & Uruguay, added.
For its part, Economist Andrés Salinas added: “The rates did not stop going up, we did not have a better scenario. The banks became restrictive in many conditions. I doubt that the rates fall after October, but perhaps if there is a good favorable result for the market they can allocate more of their budget and take out some restriction.” However, he warned: “Not always a general rate decline, impacts loans. I think until October the situation will be hard. The writing data until July is positive, August can be stagnant and September has already to feel. ”
As a reference, the Colegio de Escribanos reported that In August the total number of deeds of sale of properties increased 20.2% year -on -year, up to 6,370 operations, While the total amount of transactions shot 103.5%, reaching $ 1,048,201 million. In the monthly comparison, instead, the deeds retreated 4.2%.
“I do not encourage me to say that the mortgage train passed, but if it opens again it will not be as attractive as in the second semester of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025,” Salinas concluded.
Source: Ambito
