Consulted by Scopethe economist Jorge Carrera He explained that “the Octubres in Argentina are always of quite changed pressure because there are elections.” However, he added that it is currently a particular situation, because “the government came very badly, as others have arrived, but thinking that it was going to come very well.”
“We are facing a government that completely missed the perspectives that I had about how things were going to be and the greatest of those mistakes It was the fact of not having bought reservations at the time the agro settlement abounded“The former president of the Central Bank argued.
The dollar, waiting for legislative
From Personal Portfolio Inverters (PPI) They affirmed that as of October “The dynamics in the exchange market begins to be anotheralthough a bit predictable. “And they explained that”With the extraordinary supply outside the scene and the thriving demand, the official exchange rate would open its way to the band’s roofwhich is currently located at $ 1,480.7 “.
In addition, they added that as of this Tuesday “the salaries of formal workers begin to be accredited, which implies additional pressure from the retail segment on the official price“
Consulted by Scopethe partner of Delphos Investment, Santiago López Alfarohe considered that the situation will be “volatile” to the elections that will be held on Sunday, October 26. “In the elections the agents always hurt. In this case it seems even more, “he deepened.
In this sense, he considered that the demand for dollars “It will be firm” and emphasized the growing gap between the official exchange rate and financial dollars: “I don’t see that I love it much to the elections”.
For his part, the economist and director of Research For Traders, Gustavo Neffahe supported this medium that “The dollar will be above inflation, but not much”. And considered that The dollar will be located inside the exchange band“waiting for the result of the elections to define whether you are going to shoot or your contraction. “
Tension in rates?
Alfaro He said that the level of rates can increase over the next few weeks, product of the disarmament of positions in pesos. “There are going to be retreats surely: Some fixed deadline maturities, withdrawal in Money Market or sale of letters to dollarize. It is inevitable, That makes the rate up a little more“
Meanwhile, market sources stated that the Central Bank He reduced his taking in the passive passes to a day of the simultaneous wheels of Bymaalthough it remains well below 33% in which they were around last week.
In that sense, Carrera said that “the rate is a good instrument even in a country like Argentina, When you are far from the event you want to controlbut when the event is approaching because it is a fixed event, the interest rate is useless. “
And argued: “If you are really waiting for a more important change in the exchange rate, for example, that instrument does not work for you“
The day after the elections
Neffa commented that the base scenario it manages for legislative “There are 3% to 5% of votes in favor of the government, above the opposition”a result that “It should give more peace of mind to the current situation.” and would allow the dollar to look for “Convergence with inflation”.
López Alfaro Share a similar expectation: “It should be a couple choice and it may be that freedom progresses nationwide is up. Already with a stronger congress for lla, plus American support, I should break down the dollar and rates for new electionsbecause it should Lower the country risk, which is the first rate to look“
Anyway, he added that “Surely there is some kind of liberation” of exchange controls. “We may see a dollar closer to the roof of the gap after the elections,” he complemented.
For his part, Carrera said that “everyone is now aware that after October 27 that exchange regime with the band will disappear.”
“If the government will take 46%, it will be strong to be able to do what the United States is asking for. And if the elections went wrong, with which the government closer to 35%, It will be a weaker government and will have to force it. In one scenario or another, The release of the bands and letting the exchange rate float will be the natural exit“He concluded.
Source: Ambito
