The real reason behind the order to turn off the offer in wallets and Alycs

The abrupt suspension of the sale of currencies to the exchange rate regulated on platforms such as Mercado Pago y Cocos Capital -but also to a good part of the existing and Alyc wallets -did not arise from a regulatory whim, but from A strategy calculated to seal cracks in the capital control scheme.

What many users interpreted as a reminder of pre -existing standards is, in fact, A new tightening of the stocks “With error messages flooding apps and a stir in networks that amplified the bewilderment,” and limits exchange intermediation to authorized banks and exchange houses.

This adjustment redounts the flow of retail dollars to traditional channels, since it responds to structural concerns in a context where the official dollar exceeded $ 1,400. The noise generated by the interruption in virtual wallets joined a day of tension, with the green ticket expanding the gap between the officer and the financial and a CCL dollar that bordered the $ 1,550, despite the efforts of the BCRA to contain the bullish drift.

But beyond the immediate impact on the Fintech ecosystem, the decision is anchored in a central reason that the regulator seeks to neutralize: The enormous volume recorded in recent days, oiled by a tangle of internal arbitrations on the platforms, and exacerbated by the exploitation of extended schedules For speculative maneuvers next to the crossing of supply and demand through cryptoactives.

What’s coming: more controls, less volume

In facts, The Government imagines a succession of days of greater operational rigiditya growing gap and arbitrations that will be dismantled, to reach the October elections with a relatively controlled exchange rate in price and quantity. Of course, that if sustaining a certain reference value it is, then the question is How much additional regulation can the government recreate.

The fragility of the exchange scheme has returned. The determination of the government for preserving iron control over reserves in times of scarcity looks a mission of difficult prospect. And in the epicenter of this regulatory reconversion late Payment market, with more than 25 million active accounts in Argentinawho ruled, attention, more than 30% of the retail market for dollar.

There is a detail that is not less. In a September that ended up marked by a record liquidation of agriculture of about US $ 7,000 million via retentions zero, The Treasury only captured around 2.7 billion – maybe 40% –leaving the rest dispersed in a market where internal demand for foreign exchange does not yield and forces adjustments for price or quantity to avoid an uncontrollable drift.

Goodbye to a “rulo”, but many more are generated

As stated, the reason for this new stocks to wallet users lies in the facilitation of a speculative “rulo” within the same digital ecosystem, a mechanism that the wallets had perfected until it became an irresistible temptation for savers. A user enters their preferred app, acquires dollars at the official price – the most accessible in the market, with an spread from 7% to 10% below the financial ones – and, in a matter of clicks, transfers them or sells them directly in the same environment to the MEP or CCL dollar, capturing the gap as instant gain.

In the Palacio de Finance they think that this operation, which democratized the savings in foreign exchange for the average user, Erosion the central reserves by multiplying low volume transactions but high cumulative impact. In the case of Market Payment, this dynamic was not marginal: by dominating more than 30% of the retail retail market, a substantial portion of official purchases – volumes that rivaled and often exceed 40% of the mega agricultural liquidation.

Schedules, diverse offer and cryptoactive

As scope could know, the regulator, vigilant of these parallel flows, identified in the wallets a dispersion vector that diluted its ability to intervention in the single and free market market (Mulc). Remembering that only authorized entities can operate directly in this market for natural persons, the government cut off a practice that, although innovative from the Fintech angle, represented a controlled liquidity leakage At a time where every dollar counts to stabilize the exchange rate – a dollar whose demand, if it is not moderated, would force adjustments via price increases or quantitative restrictions, such as those that are now imposed on digital channels.

At the same time, the hourly asymmetry that the platforms exploded to amplify the arbitration, turning time into an ally of speculation returned to the Mulc and its restricted schedule – 11 to 15 hours, aligned with the traditional dynamics of the wholesale market – even coconuts extended its operational window 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The result was predictable: An additional pressure on the official exchange rate, which was forced to absorb volatility not contemplated in its design regulatory, and where an inflexible demand forces to balance via higher prices or closer quotas. By redirecting all transactions to banking entities, subject to the same Mulc clock, the BCRA not only levels the pitch, but also, think of the entity, recovers narrative control over market pulse.

On the other hand, the intersection between the official dollar and the world of cryptoactive, a crossroads that the wallets had turned into a bridge too permeable, is also located in the center of regulatory care. Platforms not only facilitated the purchase of regulated currencies, but were integrated by Seamless with cryptocurrency exchanges, allowing a user to turn official dollars into stablecoins or volatile tokens into an almost uninterrupted flow. By excluding direct sales wallets, the digital continuum that linked the Mulc with the DEFI is interrupted, forcing users to fork their strategies and potentially exposing more transactions to fiscal scrutiny.