After this month’s elections, the fight for tax resources between the provinces and the national government will intensify. The thing is 2025 heads to end automatic shipments at a level similar to 2024, According to a recent study.
The Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) Institutebased on data from the Ministry of Economy, indicates that in September Shipments added $ 5 billion, with a 10.3% decline. Thus the accumulated of the first nine months is $ 43.7 billion. In that case, it still records a rise of just 2.4% so far from 2025.
He Profit tax, in reality, it has been generating high distortions from what happened in May 2024. That month the collection of the tribute had grown due to the devaluation of late 2023which impacts co -participation. It should be remembered that 93% of the money received by governors comes from profits and VAT.
In May 2024, profits had unusual growth as a product of the impact on the balance sheets of the devaluation companies. There was an unusual payment that month, which left a very high comparison floor.
In that way, Between January and April of this year, the provinces registered an increase in co -participation of the order of 10% average. In May, when collapsing profits from the high floor of 2024, the trend changes and there are many more modest results.
“In May 2025, profit collection fell significantly in interannual terms, since in the base period there was a record collection for the exchange of December 2023, ”explains Iaraf.
The report indicates that “The collection of the tribute went from growing 37.3% real interannual in the accumulated to April to fall 1.8% in May. ”
“Then, with the collection rise of the next three months, the partial accumulated of the first nine months would have a real collection level practically equal to last year. For its part, VAT collection maintained its dynamics, of a real year -on -year increase of between 1.5% and 2.5%, ”says the report.
Change in the dynamics of provincial financing
The study indicates that “as expected, The real drop in profit collection generated a strong change in the dynamics of provincial financingthrough automatic transfers due to net co -participation to provinces and CABA ”.
“In the aCumulated to April 2025 had a real year -on -year increase of 11.8%, Then, with the decline of May profits, the accumulated had A real year -on -year decrease of 1.8%, ”explains the IARAF.
The report indicates that “later, a certain recovery of profits generated that net co -participation has a slight increase to the third quarter of 0.5% real intensual” and argues that “In the first 9 months of 2025, it is practically at the same level as in the same period of 2024.”
The fight for resources
The practically freezing of shipments to the provinces and the lack of “political doll” by the government with the governors is what caused the crisis that materialized in the bills for the distribution of the contributions of the National Treasury (ATN).
Thus, it is expected that In the debate for the 2026 budget the demand for the provinces for greater financing.
Source: Ambito
