The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowill lead an official delegation that It will start in the next few days to Washington To hold key meetings with the Secretary of the United States, Scott Besent. This displacement is framed in an effort to specify a bilateral financial assistance package, at a time of intense turbulence in the markets Already scarce two weeks of the expected summit between President Javier Milei and his American couple, Donald Trump, set for October 14 at the White House.
The initiative responds to the need for Strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) Before the very high volatility, the rise in the quotes of the dollar and the fall of local bonds and actions. Is that investors does not escape that the government faces Debt maturity for about US $ 33.9 billion until the end of the presidential mandatein a context of exchange and electoral pressures that dominate the economic agenda. The confirmation of this trip arose from a telephone conversation held yesterday between Caputo and Besent, qualified by the American official as “very positive.”
Besent’s statement, the main support
In a message posted on social network X, Besent expressed his optimism that “Minister Caputo’s team comes to Washington DC to advance our conversations about the options to give them financial support”while highlighting the importance of the structural reforms promoted by the Argentine government not only for the country, but for the stability of the region and the whole of G7.
In the events, the Treasury Secretary did not spare in commitments: “While the president continues with strong economic policies, we will be there to help him reach the elections,” he added that “The treasure is prepared to do what is necessary”. These statements, issued on the eve of the opening of the markets, sought to inject confidence in an unstable scenario, evoking the spirit of decisive interventions such as the “Whatver It Takes” pronounced by Mario Draghi in 2012 to stabilize the euro zone.
This Wednesday, The retail official dollar climbed up to $ 1,450 at Banco Nación and reached $ 1,470 in other financial entities. The wholesale exchange rate, on the other hand, closed at $ 1,423 after an increase of 3.1%, despite an aggressive intervention of the BCRA that injected approximately US $ 500 million to contain the price below $ 1,425. However, these palliative measures have failed to dissipate the pressure: the blue dollar quoted at $ 1,475 for sale, with an increase of 1.05%, while the MEP dollar was operated at $ 1,523 for purchase and $ 1,526 for sale, configuring an increasingly extensive gap compared to the officer. He dollar counted with liquidation (CCL), for its turn, drilled the $ 1,573expanding the 13%gap, in a reflection of the demand repressed by foreign exchange in the financial segment.
Dollar Blue
Dollar: 16 wheels are left to the elections
As stated, these dynamics are not isolated; They respond to speculation about greater exchange flexibility on the post -election horizon, with only 16 remaining stock market wheels to the legislative. The most concern indicator for investors is The country risk, measured by JP Morgan’s EMBI+, which was positioned at 1,230 basic points at the end of Wednesdaybut that today promised to shorten that mark from the rises scored by the bonds during the day, which sought to mitigate the falls of the previous day.
In Wall Street, the ADRs of Argentine shares yesterday deepened their setback, with casualties of up to 7% in key emitters such as YPF and Banco Macro, contributing to a 22% collapse in the Merval in dollars during September. The local index, the S&P Merval, although it closed with a modest rebound of 0.5% in pesos after three consecutive days of losses, fails to hide the underlying fragility, with a negative accumulated of 3% in the week.
For analysts, these tensions are not explained solely by domestic factors. The currency flows from the agricultural sector, which in September reached a record of 7.1 billion dollars – a 291% intermensual increase – have been insufficient to strengthen the net reserves of the BCRA, estimated at just US $ 5,000 million, which is equivalent to minimal coverage for imports and debt payments. The temporary suspension of sales of official dollars through virtual wallets, seems to have exacerbated the perception of scarcity and fed demand in parallel markets. In facts, the sustainability of the exchange scheme depends largely on external injections.
What Washington asks: guarantees
In this panorama, Caputo’s trip acquires a strategic dimension. The agenda in Washington will cover detailed discussions on specific support mechanisms, including A currency swap for US $ 20,000 million -A renewable credit line that would expand gross reserves without immediate conditionalities–, direct acquisitions of sovereign bonds by the US Treasury and the activation of stand-by credit lines through the exchange stabilization fund.
Sources close to the negotiations indicate that, although the initial enthusiasm for the bilateral “honeymoon” between Milei and Trump has promoted preliminary advances, obstacles persist as differences in the geopolitical agend The guarantees that Washington asks that the changes that predict future governance with the opposition, the provinces, in Congress, by Milei, a relaunch of the Argentine cabinet will be made and the need to align political calendars in both countries.
Besent, an economist with vast experience in investment funds and designated as Trump’s “trusted technician”, has been key in these dialogues, even transmitting to his G7 peers the urgency of supporting Milei’s reformist agenda to avoid regional infection. From Buenos Aires, the reactions did not wait. The President Milei, in a series of statements, compared Besent with Lionel Messi, The Argentine football icon, describing it as “the best player in his position” and anticipated “good news” derived from the meeting with Trump. Milei also referred to the reconstruction of links with the “dialogue opposition”, suggesting that external support could facilitate internal consensus to advance pending reforms, such as labor deregulation and commercial opening.
Caputo, on the other hand, has emphasized in public interventions the progress in the materialization of previous ads, including the complementary role of the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, whom he praised for his “balance between politics and economy.”
Despite these encouraging signs, skepticism between institutional investors and coverage funds persists. After the initial rally in bonds and actions promoted by the first mentions of American assistance – which temporarily erased 200 country risk points – the attention now focuses on practical execution. Will an initial disbursement be announced at the summit of October 14 or will be relegated to a memorandum of understanding?
Source: Ambito
