Minister Luis Caputo takes Washington a special application. It is not just about setting the Swap rules. The previous electoral will demand greater assistance.
The Minister Luis Caputo He travels to the United States at the head of a delegation of the economic team that includes Santiago Bausili, José Luis Daza and Pablo Quirno. Destiny is Washington, where Caputo will meet with Scott Besentthe US Treasury Secretary, on an agenda that, in principle, transcends protocol issues. It was Besent himself who in the last hours publicized the possibility of advancing in an agreement of exchange facilities (coin swap) that would underpin the reserves of the Argentine Central Bank with more dollars.
However, the economic team wants something else. Strictly speaking, according to the field, Consider that a structural support for the debt market must be madea promise that the American treasure will arbitrate the necessary means to sustain the price of sovereign bonds. It is an equation that seeks to put A roof to the country’s risk rise. This move becomes relevant after the intervention of the Argentine Treasury in the single and free market (Mulc) for about US $ 400 million yesterday, to prevent the wholesale exchange rate from drilling the upper band, in a day where parallel dollars fell 1.5% and the Blue receded 10 pesos to $ 1,450.
The main focus of the conversations is not limited, then, to consolidate the exchange of currencies, The swap, for about 20,000 million dollars, that would act as an immediate liquidity mattress for the reserves of the Central Bank, as long as the necessary conditions are closed so that the BCRA can use that credit. Duration, sections and interest rates of the SWAP will be discussed, in addition to the restriction to use it in import payments.
How the United States Treasury would intervene
Anyway, the objective of the economic team is to advance in that application. They believe that in the previous electoral, The United States Treasury should assume an active role as a player of the Argentine sovereign bond market. This would imply direct interventions in the secondary market, such as selective backs of titles to absorb offer and contain the selling pressureor even primate acquisitions that help reduce debt stock without generating major disbursements. The idea is clear: to hold the prices of emissions to the legislative elections, avoiding a regrowth of the yield curve that could complicate the electoral panorama and aggravate the gap with global bonds.
This claim does not arise from nothing. It is part of the initiatives that Besent himself delineated – to the instances of a member related to the economic team – as part of a strategy to support financial stability, always aligned, from that side, with broader geopolitical interests. The expectation is that President Donald Trump and his pair Javier Milei can announce it on October 14 when they meet at the White House.
A window of opportunity: little market patience
In the local context, the scaffolding of the United States assistance comes in a timely timing. The fragility of the external front, where the distrust of investors due to the lack of accumulation of currencies has raised the country risk above 1200 points, reflects not only local tensions but doubts about fiscal sustainability in view of the polls, aggravated by political noise around rejected vetoes and crossed complaints.
From the market, an operator with years of experience in restructuring – which preferred Relieves short -term asphyxiation, but does not solve the Gordian knot of recovering the confidence of private investors.
“Without conditions that encourage genuine capital flow, we end up trapped in a cycle of official creditors, where the IMF and now Washington gain primacy and leave the private ones in the rear,” he warns. For him, the real challenge lies in strengthening the fiscal and monetary foundations, so that the support of the treasure is not a patch, but A bridge towards voluntary access to markets. Otherwise, any intervention could further subordinate the bonds and complicate future renegotiations, especially with the country risk in the 1200 points and bonds operating with Spreads that, despite the rebound, still discourage fresh tickets.
To this vision is added the reading of a contact on Wall Street that closely follows the negotiations of Caputo, who disarms the misunderstanding around Besent’s recent statements. “My interpretation is that Besent does not rule out debt purchases in the primary or secondary marketbut that he wanted to defend the strategy of the Federal Reserve to attend the BCRA through a swap. “And he adds:” I think that assistance is a hybrid scheme, where the exchange exchange is complemented with direct purchases of bonds to inject stability without falling into the trap of the pure dependence on official liquidity. “
The potential impact of this “gesture” – as they call it in the halls of the City – could be significant. They believe that an explicit commitment of Besent would not only stabilize the bond curve, but would send a powerful signal to the global funds, collapsing the country risk and racing the way for the encounter between Milei and Trump on October 14.
Source: Ambito
