The projections of the participants of the REM worsened again in September, month marked by the electoral setback of the ruling in the province of Buenos Aires and a strong escalation in the price of the dollar.
The projections of the market gurúes worsened again in Septembermonth marked by the electoral setback of the ruling in the province of Buenos Aires and a strong escalation in the price of the dollar. Within that framework, estimates for the exchange rate, while expected greater inflation and lower internal gross product (GDP).
Through the publication of a new Survey of market expectations (REM)he Central Bank (BCRA) showed that the 42 participants 2.1% inflation estimated for Septemberwhen in the past they were waiting 1.8% for the same period.
For the next five months the forecasts also went up, so now The City expects prices to just yield a monthly increase of less than 2% in January 2026. For the accumulated of 2025 the expected inflation is 29.8% (+1.6 percentage points compared to the August survey), while for the next 12 months a variation of 21.9% (+0.9 points) is calculated.
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As for economic activity, the private sector cut its growth projection by 2025 in 0.5 points. Therefore, now Wait a 3.9% higher than 2024when just two months ago an increase of 5%was estimated.
On the one hand, the market aggravated its prognosis of the third quarter, for which a 0.6%drop is awaited. In parallel, he expects a weaker recovery for the last three months of the year, of 0.5%. “The annual projection It is already less than the statistical drag that had left December 2024 (+4.3%)“said the director of the consultant Outlier, Gabriel Caamaño.
Source: Ambito
