The World Trade Organization (WTO) He reviewed his projections and estimated that the World merchandise trade volume It will grow 2.4% in 2025widely exceeding the 0.9% I had foreseen in August. According to the agency, this rebound will be driven by the rise of Products linked to artificial intelligence and for him Increased American imports prior to the application of new Tariffs arranged by Donald Trump.
The international entity modified its projections on several occasions throughout the year, due to the uncertainties generated by American commercial policy and its eventual consequences on global supply chains.
Impact of tariffs and subsequent deceleration
Although the new projection by 2025 shows an improvement, the WTO reduced its growth estimate to 2026who went from 1.8% at 0.5%.
The report also pointed out that World Services Exports They will grow 4.6% in 2025after an advance of 6.8% in 2024and they will slowly decelerate 4.4% in 2026.
Agency’s economists also predicted that the World Internal Gross Product (GDP) It will expand 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026reflecting a scenario of moderation in the global economy after the initial rebound.
Message from the Director General
“The resilience of trade in 2025 is largely due to the stability offered by the rules -based multilateral commercial system,” said the WTO general director, Ngozi Okonjo-Iwealain a statement.
The official added that “The current disturbances of the world commercial system are a call to action so that the nations replace trade and jointly establish more solid bases that lead to greater prosperity for all”
United States commercial policy effect
From his return to the White House in January, Donald Trump implemented a series of Tariff surcharges about imports entering the United States. His administration imposed a 10% general tariff for all countries and increased rates to higher levels for those whose Commercial balance with the US presents a surplus in favor.
At the beginning of the year, the WTO had warned that, depending on the reach of tariff policies, the world trade could register a fall of up to 1.5% in 2025. However, importing imports to avoid new levies, added to the dynamism of technological sectors, partially reversed that forecast.
Source: Ambito
