According to the estimates of the main consultants, Argentina will have this year deflation in dollars. That is because In 2025 the consumer price index would end a rise of 30% against one 50.2% weight devaluation rateaccording to the survey of market expectations of the Central Bank.
The REM indicates that The dollar would close at $ 1,551, in such a way that when confronting the increase in inflation in pesos against the devaluation rate, the resulting is a drop of 13.4% of the prices measured In the American currency.
The calculation was made by the consultant Salvador di Stéfano, who told the scope that “Argentina is a little more competitive every day because devaluation is higher than inflation in pesos.”
What would be happening in 2025 It would be the reverse to what happened in 2024which began with very high inflation, but with a devaluation rate of 2% monthly, and then decrease to 1%, whose effect is inflation in dollars for the Argentine market. That was noticed in the huge number of foreigners who visited the country in last summer, and then the equation was invested.
In 2024 inflation was 117.8% against a devaluation of 29.3%, which is equivalent to an annual inflation in dollars.
The US rescue, key
The level of the bilateral exchange rate With the United States, the unique importance at a time when the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, tries to negotiate a package Financial rescue For Argentina, which would come hand in hand with greater controls of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The matter that is negotiated is precisely what would be a balance level of the dollar that allows the BCRA to buy between US $ 4,000 YU $ 5,000 million for reservations per year, as the IMF usually estimate in its agreements.
“I think the exchange scheme is quite damaged,” affirmed Pablo Moldován, of CP Consultor, referring to the band scheme that tries to defend the government at least until the October 26 elections.
From there, all The City operators prepare for a regime change, which could be transformed into a flotation without bandswith a change rate somewhat higher than the current one in order to stop imports and broadcasting, and on the contrary, try to favor export sectors and receptive tourism.
To do this, the public feeling would have to be again that Argentina is cheap for those who come from abroad, while the locals are expensive to spend the verane outside or make purchase tours to neighboring countries.
Moldován considers that from a point of view pessimistic Argentina has been “chaining short -term schemes” And that in order to go to a new exchange scheme “I should have a very high” overshooting. “
It also states that the new scheme of change will be tied to what Caputo gets in the United States. “It is one thing if it comes with financing for two years. If that is not much more aggressive correction margins will be needed” in the value of the dollar, he explained.
The dollar is the result of other variables
For its side, the economist Ivan Carrino said that the value of the dollar is a result of a whole series of variables. “If the country risk fell to half of what is today, for example, the dollar would now be very high.” “If the Government has to continue selling to prevent the dollar then would be cheap” for this context, he explained.
“What I see is that if this year there is deflation in dollars it is bad news because that is a sign that the country risk uploaded ”, Carrino said. When asked about the idea that markets and agencies would be asking Argentina to accumulate reservations, the economist considered that the best way to buy dollars by the government “is with fiscal surplus” since if prices were made with issues in pesos they will rise even if people go to Brazil. “
Similarly, the director of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC), Leonardo Anzalone, He pointed out that “with an inflation of 30% and a 50% devaluationthe REM projects a deflation in dollars close to 13%, which implies an improvement of the real exchange rate ”.
“However, A macro with backward dollar is not usually sustainable in Argentina: every time the exchange rate was appreciated, the country lost competitiveness And the Central Bank ended up giving reservations, “he explained. Therefore, he said that” more than thinking about a ‘new balance’, the important thing is macro consistency. “
“If inflation does not lower faster or Reservations are not accumulated, that improvement will be transitory and, after the elections, the discussion about an exchange correction will return ”, Anzalone said.
Source: Ambito
