In a meeting with the organization’s technical teams in Buenos Aires, they anticipated that there will be a significant drop after the extraordinary advance. The economic team remains in Washington negotiating with the White House and the Fund.
Members of the technical team of the International Monetary Fund met last week with Argentine businessmen from the export sector to obtain details on the settlement of dollars for the day after the October 26 elections. The picture that they painted from the agroindustry is not encouraging at all, They talk about a currency drought at least until Decemberjust at a time when concern is growing about the level of reserves. They estimate that, after the cereal companies advanced about US$6 billion, income will be a third of what is usual for this time of year.
The market is impatient with the lack of definitions on the size and conditions of the rescue that Donald Trump’s administration will give to Javier Milei. In an adverse wheel at the international level, this Tuesday bonds and stocks fell again, parallel dollars rose, pressure on futures contracts returned and the Treasury had to intervene to contain the official exchange rate, despite the fact that it has less than US$1 billion left among its ammunition.
The economic team has been installed in Washington since Saturday. The minister Luis Caputo He met first with his American counterpart Scott Bessent and then with the head of the International Monetary Fund. After the meeting with Kristalina Georgieva grew versions of greater interference by the organization multilateral in the operation negotiated by the Government.
The information comes from the market and there is talk of the possibility of support being channeled through Special Drawing Rightsthe currency used by the IMF. This would also trigger a recalibration of the program with the organization, whose reserve goals and exchange rate policy principles are at this point a fiction of the past. The Government maintains strict secrecy for now.
The Fund meetings and the lack of dollars
Meanwhile, The Fund’s technical team continues to move in Buenos Aires and had several meetings in recent days. It should not draw attention, Argentina is by far the organization’s largest debtor. One of those meetings was with representatives of the export sector.
As Ámbito learnedthe main focus of the conversation revolved around the speed at which the currencies will be liquidated after the advance of US$6,000 million that the cereal companies made in exchange for the temporary elimination of withholdings. The picture they painted from the sector was not positive. Estimates indicate that clearance could fall to around a third of what is typical for this time of year.
Sources from the agricultural sector consulted by this medium spoke of a “drought of dollars” until the end of the year. The projections made by the technicians who advise the chambers in the sector speak of a liquidation that will not exceed US$50 million per day at least until the end of the year.
The escape route for Trump
There is no doubt that Donald Trump made the commitment to grant a bailout to Javier Milei. But that support today became a problem of internal politics. Chuck Schummer, Democratic leader of the Senate and key man to unlock the “shutdown” said this Tuesday: “Trump wants us to believe that there is not enough money to fix health care premiums, there is not enough money for air traffic controllers, but somehow there is 20 billion dollars available to bail out Argentina?!”
The conflict with the opposition adds to the protests of American producers of cereals that compete with the Argentinian ones and that are finding it difficult to enter their products into the Chinese market. For this reason, the International Monetary Fund appears to the White House as an escape route from internal pressures.
The Fund welcomed the intervention of the United States at the time. But he said it bluntly: Argentina needs to make its monetary policy transparent and accumulate genuine reserves. Whether it is the Treasury or the IMF that provides the dollars, the Government will have to take a new swing.
Source: Ambito
