TAMAR and the surety exceeded 70%

This jump was evident in the shorter instruments. The annual nominal rate (TNA) of the one-day bond reached a maximum of 72%and then finish the day around 60%.

The causes of this new rate increase

Nicholas Cappellafinancial analyst at IEB, explained that this It is due to “lack of liquidity”. “The simultaneous payments with the BCRA (passive repos) went from $5 billion to zero. That is, the banks stopped placing pesos to the BCRA overnight. In addition to this, there began to be many bailouts of Money Market funds,” he deepened.

The specialist stressed that this lack of pesos is the reverse side of “over-dollarization” that was glimpsed in recent days, reflected in Treasury sales and in the intervention with dollar-linked securities.

In this regard, Pedro Siaba SerrateHead of Research & Strategy at PPI, expressed to this medium his surprise at this dynamic of returns, since “the sterilization factors of the previous weeks (the sale of Treasury dollars and linked dollars) were no longer present.” Nevertheless, Based on the BCRA’s estimated position in short future dollar contracts, it is considered that there was a significant absorption of pesos here.

In dialogue with Scopethe economist Andres Salinas He maintained that “political uncertainty remains intact, which means that the appetite for hedging in dollars is still latent.” In that sense, he added, “Every participant who now wants pesos tends to make the yields of instruments in local currency rise“.

The rate of wholesale fixed terms exceeded 70%

Faced with this scenario, he pointed out that banks have three options to gain liquidity: 1) sell short-term debt securities (which overshadows the debt rally in pesos), 2) take on short-term debt (from the aforementioned rate increases), 3) compete for deposits against other banks (increasing rates TAMAR and BADLAR for wholesale fixed terms).

Precisely, during this day the BCRA reported the fifth consecutive increase in the TAMAR, whose TNA reached 54.38%, while the annual effective rate (TEA) culminated in 70.10%. 10 days ago this rate was in the area of ​​42% nominal (51% effective).

Rate rise: the next tender will be key to monitor the position of the economic team

This Wednesday’s tender will be key to monitoring the response of the economic team to this increase in yields. “There may be an ‘anker point’, that is, the Treasury rolls less than what matures, in order to free up pesos and allow some liquidity to return and rates to adjust.“Cappella predicted as one of the options.

However, he clarified that the Government must also “finely tune the amount of pesos it puts on the streets before the elections, to reduce the so-called ‘kuka risk’.”

Regarding the latter, Salinas considers that US aid “gives the Government degrees of freedom to release some liquidity and prevent the rate from being so high. “Although the dollar and inflation are important factors for an election, the level of activity and financing of companies is also important, and in fact the financing of an SME is quite palpable and critical; Any liquidity problem that the company has becomes much more costly in this context.since it translates into discomfort,” he warned.

For its part, Pablo Reppettohead of Research at Aurum Valores, pointed out that “if with the pesos it bought, the US Treasury goes to the bidding on Wednesday, it could compensate for some non-rolling of other players who need liquidity.” “There may also be a circumstantial demand for pesos due to a lack of liquidity, such as from banks that need to meet the daily reserve requirements,” he said.

It should be noted that debt maturities in pesos this week are around $4 billion. To refinance this liability, Economía will place this Wednesday two fixed-rate securities (Lecaps/Boncaps) and two other securities indexed to the evolution of the official exchange rate (dollar linked).