The former head of Banco Nación assured: “I never saw a quasi-colonial incursion of this type. If anyone expected something from yesterday… it ended up being confusing, Yesterday’s message did not meet the objectiveit’s like “He got frustrated.” With that phrase, Melconian alluded to the government misstep when trying to clarify that Trump had not conditioned his financial support on the outcome of the October legislative elections, but to the presidential elections of 2027.
In dialogue with Radio La Red, the economist explained that this “uncertainty” constitutes the first stage of the Government, which will last until the night of October 26, when the election results are known. As detailed, this phase began with the statements of the US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, who promised “do whatever it takes” to assist Argentina, and continued with the negotiation of the swap announced in Washington.
Three stages and a risk scenario
Melconian warned that his main concern is that “People’s purchasing of dollars does not stop.” “As the information is not serious and there is no pertinent clarification, we are seeing a very important purchase of dollars. That is the microeconomic result,” he noted.
Furthermore, he recalled that “the North American Treasury always collects”, unlike the International Monetary Fund, with whom the country maintains an agreement under constant review. In his analysis, the second stage will go from the night of October 26 to December 10when the legislative change is finalized.
“Who is the God who can interpret the results of the midterm election? We are going to a strange scenario. Already at zero to zero, the Government says ‘I won because I have more legislators than before’. Who is responsible for calling Trump to tell him ‘we won’?”the economist asked himself.
The third stage, according to Melconian, will begin in 2026, the third year of Milei’s government. “I always said ‘the veil was lifted on September 7 with the election of the province of Buenos Aires’, which was a trigger and an excusebecause macroeconomics had already failed there. “The kuka risk was always there”he expressed.
milei melconian
“A change is coming” in the economic program
Melconian anticipated that, after the elections, “a macroeconomic change of the program is coming”. He reiterated that the current exchange rate regime “cannot stand” and that the country must choose “either for freedom or for restrictions.”
“The election was won with dollarization when we proposed bimonetary. And one day, dollarization frustrated because there are no noodles or tuco, they appeared with a coin competition. That’s when I ask seriousness”, he stated.
Finally, he stated that “We have to fix the interest rate” and stressed: “At some point there has to be a monetary policy that loses volatility. The flag of the fiscal surplusknow the entire political arc of Argentina, It is unturnable. It is a necessary condition, but not sufficient.”
Source: Ambito
