Different private estimates point to a positive result for the ninth month of the year. However, a deceleration of the aforementioned surplus is also expected.
The Argentine Commercial Exchange (ICA) would have closed September with a surplus close to US$650 millionaccording to the average of estimates collected by Reuters between 11 local and foreign consulting firms. Although the balance remains in positive territory, the projections reflect a surplus deceleration compared to previous months, in line with a sustained increase in imports.
If this result is confirmed for the ninth month of the year, the country will accumulate 22 consecutive months of positive trade balancea streak that has not been recorded since 2010. The official data will be published next Monday at 7pm for him National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC).
Trade balance projections
According to the private projections that were taken for the report, the median was located at US$587 millionwith estimates that ranged from a minimum of US$195 million and a maximum of US$1,000 million.
“We expect that in September the trade balance will be positive, although less than what has been observed in recent months with a surplus balance of US$340 million“said the economist of the Freedom and Progress Foundation. Ivan Cachanosky. In this sense, he warned that “Imports advance at a much faster speed than exports do“and projected a total surplus for the end of the year”around US$8 billion”.
In August, the country recorded a positive balance of US$1,402 millionwhile in September 2024 the surplus had been US$981 millionwhich confirms the downward trend in the last quarter.
For his part, the director of VDC Consulting, Pablo Besmedrisnikhighlighted in dialogue with Reuters the importance of the external front for macroeconomic stability. “Beyond the benefits or damages generated by the temporary reduction of withholdings on agricultural exports, made a concept clearer than ever: the absolute relevance that the trade balance will have for the stabilization and growth of the Argentine economy in the coming years”, he stated.
It should be noted in this sense that the Government suspended in September – temporarily – the taxes on exports of grains and derivativesa measure intended to stimulate liquidation and increase the supply of foreign exchange in the market.
Source: Ambito
