The minister Luis Caputo He said there will be no changes with the bands next Monday. He held it this Wednesday at the Córdoba Stock Exchange. But the counterfactual doesn’t work: it would not be logical to think that the head of the Treasury Palacein its microclimate, would have warned the entire citizenry of a regime change with the dollar just when the Government – and the Argentines – suffer an exchange rate run of historic proportions.
Of course, the official wholesale exchange rate barely moves, at this time, bullish in essence, standing on a tile, at the exact point where the upper band of the exchange rate ends. The band ceiling.
The area is referred to: $1,492. On the other side, the abyss of the unknown. Everyone is in that square meter. Those who invest, hoard, profit, speculate.
But there is also the Government, the full economic team. There are also the multilateral organizations who promise – now – that dollars with a specific destination, by an unknown magic, can be channeled to repurchase debt in the secondary market under the promise of not neglecting the ultimate objective. Even the president of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon.
There is also Georgieva & Co., the entire International Monetary Fund (IMF). But, above all, standing on that unstable tile, behind the rectangular bifocals, the eagle’s scrutiny of the secretary appears. Scott Bessent and his dollar-making machine.
Thanks to Bessent, the Government, the IMF, multilateral organizationsthey pass through these hours, without visible emergencies, weighing electoral projections for Sunday and, of course, designing an entire containment protocol for the day after. The 27-0.
Although the data is not available, it could be thought that the United States Treasury must have already invested the equivalent of $1.5 billion, but in Argentine pesos. And that this pre-electoral adventure could easily end in the area of US$2 billion. Not bad. To that we must add the US$2 billion from the Argentine Treasury. And so much more.
In essence, the questions remain. What’s more, they are getting deeper. Can the economy be reactivated with this economic program? How far will US support go?
Argentine bonds are on their way to yield 20% in dollars. But buyers are conspicuous by their absence, despite promises of future payment.
On the one hand, the Government is betting everything on a balanced result at the country level. Let’s say, a result for LLA that would be in the area of 33 to 35%. If we move forward a little further, they estimate in the Casa Rosada, there would be a Monday where tensions would drop and Argentines would begin to de-dollarize.
In this scenario, there are even those who imagine a kind of punishment meted out by expert coin trader Scott Bessentdeepening the appreciation of the Argentine peso and causing Uncle Sam’s standard bearers to lose money.
On the other side, there are those who sense that if the result is not good, and opens the door to a political reset, this would necessarily imply a reset of monetary and exchange rate policy.
And there are those who think that any outcome will result, the long-awaited floatalways under the tutelage of Donald Trump.
Source: Ambito
