Although there is a decrease in the projection, the Argentine recovery contrasts with the contraction of 2024 and is framed in a technical rebound, although the organization does not separate its forecast from the recently implemented adjustment policies.
The ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) cut its growth projection for Argentina from 5% to 4.3% during 2023. In this way, it positioned itself in fourth place in Latin America behind Guyana (+12.1%), Venezuela (+6%) and Paraguay (+4.5%).
The Argentine recovery contrasts with the contraction of 2024 and is framed in a technical rebound, although the organization does not separate its forecast from the recently implemented adjustment policies.
In turn, The region also presents an improvement of around 0.2 percentage points (pp) and the economy would be 2.4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).. With this update, the regional growth expectation is the same as that presented in December 2024 (2.4%).
The updated projections show heterogeneous behavior between the subregions. In 2025, South America would grow by 2.9%, a figure higher than 2.7% scheduled in August. This impulse responds to increase in trade between the countries of the subregion with China and the rise in the prices of precious metals and other products from the extractive sectors.
The estimate of the growth of GDP for Central America It would not register a variation with respect to that announced in August, and would remain at 2.6%. For his part, the GDP of Mexico would grow a 0.6%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous estimate, reflecting a more favorable outcome in international trade and a better-than-anticipated performance by the United States economy.
Forecast for 2026
By 2026, the ECLAC maintains its regional projection unchanged 23%. If this estimate is realized, they would be four years in which the region would grow at rates of around 2.3%so the average regional GDP growth for the period 2017–2026 would be 1.6%.
By subregion, by 2026 it is anticipated 2.4% growth rates for South America, 3.2% for Central America, 1.3% for Mexico and 8.2% for the Caribbean (1.7% if Guyana is excluded).
Source: Ambito
