The data arrived two weeks late, due to the budgetary paralysis suffered by the United States federal government.
US retail inflation rose less than expected in Septemberboth in its interannual measurement and in the monthly comparison. This way, It is almost a certainty that the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the rate again next Wednesday.
The market expected that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) gave 0.4% last month, the same increase that it showed in August. However, the increase was slightly smaller: +0.3%. For its part, in the year-on-year measurement, prices rose 3%, when the market expected 3.1%.
Anyway, Yes, it is an increase compared to the 2.9% year-on-year in August and the highest level since February of this year, according to the Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisticsthat The publication was delayed two weeks due to the partial shutdown of the US government.
Excluding food and energy categories, the volatile components of the index, The core CPI rose 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in August. The core CPI increased 3% year-on-year after a 3.1% increase in August.
US Federal Reserve
Waiting for Fed cuts
From the Schwab Center for Financial Research they stated that the data “They didn’t do much to change expectations about the Fed’s rate cut path.since price increases were smaller than expected and reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week and again in December in response to the weakening labor market.
In this sense, market expectations regarding a rate cut by the North American central bank next week are 99%, according to the tool FedWatch from CME.
Source: Ambito
