Medicines: Pharmaceutical industry is growing: tariff dispute with Trump boosts exports

While the German economy is in crisis, the pharmaceutical industry expects significantly more production and sales in 2025. However, the industry is benefiting from special effects in the trade dispute with the USA.

The Association of Researching Pharmaceutical Companies (VFA) expects production to increase by 3.2 percent this year, while production in German industry as a whole will fall by 1.7 percent. At the same time, pharmaceutical investments are expected to grow by 2.7 percent and sales by 3.4 percent. As a result, employment in Germany is increasing slightly.

The reason for the growth is also the customs dispute with US President Donald Trump, who threatened pharmaceutical tariffs in the spring. As a result, pharmaceutical companies quickly brought as many drugs as possible across the Atlantic; Production and exports rose sharply.

The effect is still having an impact, according to the VFA. “The recent high exports to other countries show that deliveries initially redirected to the USA are now being made up for in the original recipient countries.” Production and sales are therefore likely to remain elevated over the course of the year; lower values ​​are expected for 2026. Then pharmaceutical sales should fall slightly (-0.7 percent).

Trump’s threats are unsettling

The USA is an indispensable sales market for the German pharmaceutical industry; around a quarter of exports go there. Most recently, Trump threatened pharmaceutical tariffs of 100 percent on branded and patented drugs from October 1st. Shortly before the planned introduction, US government circles said that the EU would be spared. A customs cap of 15 percent should therefore apply to medicinal imports from the EU.

However, the Trump administration is putting pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to take action against high drug prices in the USA. Corporations such as Roche, Novartis and Sanofi have announced billions in investments in the USA. Darmstadt-based Merck also signed an agreement with the Trump administration.

The VFA believes that pharmaceutical companies are likely to continue investing in Germany. “Even if investments in Germany are at least partially postponed in favor of the USA, investments by the pharmaceutical industry in this country are likely to continue to increase.”