That does not mean that the commissions of The Chamber of Deputies continue working with the idea that each legislative group shows its cards and presents its ideas. For example, the space led by Miguel Ángel Pichetto proposes going with a minority opinion, which would have a surplus of 0.9% of GDP, instead of the 1.5% contained in the official project.
If before the legislative elections there was any chance that groups related to Libertad Avanza made proposals to carry out the project, the result It dilutes that momentum and the chances grow that it will come out with minor modifications.
According to the agenda of the legislative branch, The Secretary of the Treasury, Carlos Guberman, should go this Wednesday to defend tax collection projections.
Guberman will have to explain to legislators How are you going to raise $225 billion with the same tax structure as in 2025, a figure that represents 21.77% of GDP?whose growth is estimated at 5%. If the inflation forecast in the Budget of 10% is not met and is higher, there may be more income than what appears in the project. Are taxes going to be lowered?
As indicated by the Congressional Budget Office (OPC) in its analysis of the bill “the main tax resources in 2026 will be VAT, Income Tax and Social Security Contributions and Contributionstotaling between the three 16.9% of GDP, more than three quarters of national revenue.”
Other salient aspects of the collection projection presented for the year 2026 are:
- Increase in the tax pressure of the Income Tax by 0.21 percentage points (pp), due to the deceleration of the nominal value.
- Increase in the tax pressure of the Fuel Tax, due to the gradual updating of the fixed sums that comprise it.
- Lower tax pressure on the Personal Property Tax, as a result of the reduction in rates provided for by Law 27,743 and the impact of the Special Income Regime stipulated in that same law.
Permanent bleaching
It is worth remembering that the Government included in the project the initiative for the Simplified Income Taxwhich for now is underway but has as its legal basis a decree and resolutions from ARCA.
The Simplified Earnings regime works similar to the monotax. ARCA provides you with a declaration of expenses from the taxpayer, who must endorse or modify it. ARCA does not consult about the origin of the funds that the taxpayer has used throughout the period. This seeks to create a kind of permanent money laundering. Although the law does not specifically talk about dollars, the project points to “the mattress dollars” that Argentines have outside the system.
First milestone on the libertarians’ agenda
On the Government’s agenda, the Budget 2026 is the first milestone. To continue giving certainty to the market about its ability to govern, the idea is that it be approved, since there have been two fiscal periods in a row in which the Executive Branch extends the 2023 Budget.
On the first occasion, the ruling party decided not to advance with the project promoted by Sergio Massa, which sought to achieve a fiscal surplus by eliminating tax expenses. That initiative transferred to Congress the responsibility of defining which economic sectors would lose their tax benefits. Later, in September 2024, Javier Milei sent his own project with a surplus goal and presented it on the national network. However, given the opposition’s signs of introducing fundamental changes, The President ended the debate and again extended the current law from 2023.
That’s why Now it is important as a signal to the market that the Government empowered by the polls has the capacity to lead the process politically.trying to get the support it lacks to move forward with that first bill. In fact, the president said that he is willing to work with governors to advance laws necessary. Later, a labor reform and later a tax reform.
On the other hand, on Tuesday the elected senator and current Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, to defend the spending in her area. It should be remembered that the government ordered ministers not to go to Congress to prevent the debate from becoming an interpellation of officials. But that was before the elections.
On Wednesday, the Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Defense, María Luciana Carrasco, and the Undersecretary of Administrative Management, Mauro Ceratto, are also expected to attend. Also invited are the Secretary of Education, Carlos Torrendell, and the Undersecretary of University Policies, Alejandro Álvarez.
Source: Ambito
