“Ukraine is the great player in the cereal market. It has 12% of world exports of wheat and 16% of corn. Russia is more important in wheat, having 17% of the market. Ukraine and Russia represent almost a 30% of the wheat market,” said economist Martín Polo.
Since Russia’s armed attack on Ukraine, trade from the ports of both countries has been paralyzed and shows no signs of reactivating in the short term.
According to a calculation by the Russian consulting firm SovEcon, at the start of the war actions, Ukraine had around 6 million tons of wheat left to export for the 2021/2022 campaign, while Russia would have between 7 and 7.5 million to export. your sales.
Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine this season are forecast at 35 million tons and 24 million tons, respectively, according to projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Together they represent 28.5% of the total fine grain trade.
The sudden growth in the value of wheat caused Egypt, the world’s leading importer of wheat, to cancel two purchase tenders twice in less than a week, said the Argentine marketer Granar.
Egypt made the last purchase of wheat on February 17 from Romania –120,000 tons–, paying US$318 FOB (put on the ship), plus US$20.55 in freight. Last Thursday the only offer submitted was from France, with an FOB value of US$399 plus US$49.55 freight.
Yesterday there were two French offers, quoted at US$389.92 and US$399, with freight rates of US$39.30, to which was added a proposal from the United States with an FOB value of US$447 and with freight of u$s70.
On the other hand, if the confrontations continue, they will begin to put at risk the spring wheat crops, which generally represent about 30% of the total production in both countries.
Source: Ambito
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