The economist Gustavo Ber analyzed: “The positive balances of the BCRA’s interventions are providing relief to reserves, also helped by the greater pace of the ‘crawling peg’ and the successive rises in rates on the way to the objective of positive real yields. The calm also extends among the financial dollars, already looking to break the $ 200, before increasing bets towards the ‘carry trade’ in order to take advantage of this tactical opportunity”.
In February, stock prices had fallen by 10.1% ($22.43), in the case of the CCL, and by 8.5% ($18.17), in the case of the MEP.
For its part, the blue dollar rose yesterday for the first time in five days, according to a survey by Ámbito in Buenos Aires caves. After falling $10 in the short week last, in what was its biggest weekly drop in over 15 months, and reaching close to $200 at the beginning of this week, it climbed $1 on this wheel to finish at $202. In this way, the gap with the official amounted to 86.1%.
BCRA purchases
In the official square, the Central yesterday basted another round of positive balance in the foreign exchange market. With a continuation of the high supply from agro-exporters, it bought US$60 million and increased the monthly accumulated amount to more than US$450 million. Waiting for the foreign exchange from the thick harvest to be added in the second half of March, the current balance already allows to cut a streak of four consecutive months of draining reserves as a result of official intervention.
With the BCRA’s coffers at the limit, this dynamic begins to encourage expectations of an incipient recovery of reserves at times of reversal of unfavorable seasonality, facing a scenario of less tension after the approval of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund and after two increases in the interest rate in pesos during the first two months.
Some market operators also pointed to the rise in international prices of commodities as a result of the war in Europe and the sector’s fears regarding a possible rise in withholdings to decouple prices as factors in a greater liquidation of agriculture. Within this framework, on Monday the Central bought some US$300 million, the largest daily sum of the entire era of Miguel Pesce at the head of the entity.
“With a very limited demand due to the current restrictions to access the market and, with the significant contribution of the improvement in the income of the agro-export complex, the Central Bank manages to generate a very friendly environment so that the process of accumulation of reserves intensifies in the beginning of the second two months of the year”, said the analyst Gustavo Quintana.
The wholesale dollar rose 12 cents to $108.56 and -in this way- in the first two days of this week it accumulated a rise of 43 cents, a rate of adjustment for now in line with the management process of its evolution registered in the last months.
Source: Ambito
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