The median inflation forecast for 2022 rose to 6.45% from 5.65% the previous week. in the latest weekly “Focus” of the central bank among more than 100 economists.
Monetary policymakers aim for a inflation of 3.5% this year, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points.
As a result, private forecasts also see the central bank extending its current rate hike cycle this year, bringing the rate Reference Selic at 12.75% at the end of the year, compared to the 12.25% anticipated in last week’s survey.
The central bank of Brazil has carried out one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in the worldin a fight against inflation that reached 10.54% in the 12 months to February.
The median forecast continues to point to a 1 percentage point rise in interest rates at this week’s meeting, which would take the Selic to 11.75%, up from a record low of 2% in March 2021.
Economists now see a 75 basis point rate hike in May, up from 50 basis points previously expected.
In the past week, the state oil company Petrobras announced an increase of approximately 20% in fuel prices, which fueled inflation expectations in the largest economy in Latin America, which depends largely on the transport of goods by road.
Source: Ambito
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