It is worth remembering that, so far in 2022, the Central Bank has raised rates by 450 basis points twice. The reference rate, which applies to Leliqs, went from 38% to 42.5% in nominal and annual terms.
In effective terms, Leliqs currently yield 51.3%, while traditional fixed terms provide an annual return of 49.8%.
If inflation is between 38% and 48%, as projected by the Government and the IMF in the framework of the agreement, the current rates would be positive in real terms.
However, According to the latest REM of the BCRA, the market estimated in February an annual inflation of 55% for 2022. Likewise, if the price increases of the first two months are annualized (3.9% in January and 4.7% in February), the inflation would result from 66%a figure that would leave savings instruments in pesos largely relegated.
In this sense, many specialists consider that, at least, the rates should move 200 basic points, although others doubt their effectiveness in the fight against inflation, since the current price increases would not be linked to pressure from demand.
It is worth noting that this week the Ministry of Economy has already taken a first step in the direction of going towards a path of positive real rates, by validating new increases in the returns of fixed-rate bills (LEDes) that are usually tendered to obtain financing in local currency.
On Wednesday the Ministry of Finance placed three bills with a fixed yield (LEDes) in June, July and August, with rates of 46.05%, 47.29% and 48.27%, respectively, which implied an increase of between 1 and 1 .5 percentage points of the effective annual rate, which on this occasion was above 57%.
The BCRA board meeting had already been suspended on Thursday, with the justification that its president, Miguel Pesce, should be available in the Senate in the framework of the discussion on the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which was finally approved by the legislators.
Source: Ambito
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