The scenario seems more than encouraging with regard to the income of the dollars from the field for the remainder of the year. According to the latest projections of the Rosario Stock Exchange, in total this year the main agro-export complexes would contribute around US$38.6 billion and the year would end with total exports of more than US$84.8 billion.
From here a key question arises, April will be a transcendental month because the dollars from the soybean harvest would begin to come in and the liquidation of the sector would widely exceed US$3.5 billion, but also the confrontation that the field poses with the Government could be a stumbling block to overcome. It is that at this time the self-convened producers propose a mobilization towards CABA for the end of April in protest at the rise in temporary withholdings and the possibility of specifying a grain marketing cessation is also being considered. These tensions could directly affect the income of the farm dollars.
The truth is that at the moment the Liaison Table is not promoting any type of forceful measure and is not even calling its bases to the mobilization planned for next April 23. The possibility that the conflict escalates as it did in 2008 after resolution 125 seems really remote. The ruralists are committed to blocking the government’s decision through Congress, where they have already obtained the support of various opposition legislators. Although in practice, if these maneuvers prosper, they would not have a full impact on the liquidation of foreign currency, but rather on the collection of withholdings.
That is why the Government is looking closely at the movements of the opposition legislators and the Liaison Table, although they trust that the increase in withholdings took place within a framework of total legality, contrary to what ruralism is discussing.
In turn, another scenario opens up for nothing less. Agricultural producers have long demanded a correction in the official exchange rate, which, according to what they indicate, shows a strong delay with respect to inflation. That is why, in the case of not needing funding and despite the high international prices, they could retain much more soybean grain in the silos. The warlike conflict between Russia and the Ukraine would, for the time being, ensure the support of the international prices of agricultural commodities, but also an increase in the cost of fertilizers, not least.
In this way, what is expected is that agricultural producers sharpen their pencils to obtain the highest profitability in a scenario not only of economic but also political uncertainty. In any case, the coffers of the BCRA could maintain a certain calm in the next four months, since between April and July the field would contribute a floor of US$14,000 million. In short, the end is still open, but the recent agreement reached by the Government with the IMF could be more than positive data to calm the economic scenario.
Source: Ambito
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