The data comes from a study prepared by the Department of Information and Economic Studies of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR). Specifically, the BCR estimates that exports in 2022 could reach a total of US$84,841 million and of that total, the field would reach the historical record of US$41,053 million, which represents US$3,004 million more than what was exported in the year that ended.
Disaggregating by complex, exports of the soybean complex are projected at US$23,745 million. Logically, this is due to the sharp rise in FOB prices for all products, but soybean oil in particular. In this way, the complex would manage to exceed the value exported in 2021 by US$269 million. In turn, in order of importance, the corn complex would reach shipments for US$9.65 billion.
At the same time, projections for the wheat complex reach an increase of US$328 million to US$4,741 million for the current year. Thus, the rise in prices together with the increase in quantities would allow this sector to increase the value of its exports by almost US$1.43 billion compared to the 2021 mark. The sunflower complex would reach exports of US$1.84 billion, US$538 million above the 2021 mark. Lastly, the Cebada complex would record shipments of US$1,077 million.
On the other side of the scale, the imports of Argentina in 2022 would increase mainly due to the increase in prices observed in late 2021 and early 2022. Assuming real GDP growth in 2022 of 0.8%, a real exchange rate that remains stable at $102 and the same scheme of norms for access to the MULC, an estimate of 70,695 million CIF dollars in imports is obtained. Considering the exports calculated above, a surplus of US$14,145 million would be obtained.
In this way, the “normal” scenario projected by the BCR advances imports for more than US$70.6 billion, but In the case of considering an increase in the order of 50% in the last six months of the year, imports would reach US$73.6 billion, still achieving a trade surplus of US$11.1 billion. Finally, in the worst case and unlikely, a 100% increase in import values would bring the tally up to $76.6 billion.
“It can be said that scenario 3 incorporates a scenario of disruption in commodity marketing chains throughout the year, as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As the calculation of exports does not take into account the last increase in the price of grains, only the expected surplus for scenarios 1 and 2 is calculated. This surplus in the trade balance results from the contribution, of great importance, that the sector would make. agribusiness in Argentina. This would help the Central Bank to accumulate reserves, it would contribute to comply with the agreement with the IMF and it would provide the necessary foreign currency, not only to sustain imports, but also for the rest of the needs of the economy for the year 2022”, concludes the report prepared by the entity from Rosario.
Among the sectors that stand out in the import item, the gas and fuel category would add around US$10.3 billion, when a year earlier it represented close to US$7.1 billion. Meanwhile, the metals category would take imports to US$822 million, when in 2021 it barely exceeded US$600 million, just to name two cases where the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine is strongly noticeable.
Source: Ambito
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