It also improved the projection for 2023, raising the expected growth to 3%, half a point above the January forecast.
The Fund believes that inflation will remain high. According to the World Economic Outlook report, in the current year the price index would reach 48%. It should be remembered that in the memorandum of understanding that the country agreed with the agency, an inflation range of 38 to 48% was established.
For next year the report anticipates an inflation of 42%. Once again, the upper limit of the range set in the memorandum is indicated, which for 2023 contemplates inflation between 34 and 42%.
Surplus
As for the external front, projects that the surplus in the current account of the balance of payments will continue. It would be, according to the IMFsurplus by 0.5% of GDP in the current year and also positive by 0.4% in 2023.
Due to the recovery, the multilateral organization estimates that unemployment will go from 9.3% of the population registered last year to 9.2% in the present to drop to 8.1% in 2023.
The latest global growth forecasts were revised downwards, as a result of the war in Ukraine. This cut includes China, one of the country’s main trading partners. The Asian giant would grow “only” 4.4% (0.4% less than in the previous report) and 5.1% in 2023 (0.1% less).
Instead, forecasts for Brazil improved somewhat. The neighboring country would grow 0.8% in the current year – half a point more than the previous forecast -. The projection for 2023 is a GDP increase of 1.4% (0.2% less than in the previous report).
Achieved goals
Meanwhile, Guzmán will also bring good news to the staff of the mission in Argentina. As anticipated yesterday at the event where help was announced for the informal sectors and retirees, “I can confirm that the goals in the fiscal, monetary and international reserve accumulation areas have been met” in the first quarter. .
In this sense, he clarified that state aid is “in line with what had been planned” and anticipated that the primary fiscal deficit for the first quarter was only 0.25% of GDP.
A study by the consulting firm Analytica reported that the monetary issue was also fulfilled, since “the ceiling of Accumulated BCRA financing to the Treasury as of March is $236.8 billion. As of March 31, only $122 billion as transitory advances while there were no transfers of profits”.
Although the requirement that the new national budget be present on the 15th was not met, Ámbito learned that the IMF told the economic team thatgiven the current scenario due to the war in Ukraine, there was more time for his presentation.
Sources from the Casa Rosada estimate that given the parliamentary situation, the new budget will be issued through a DNU, extending the current one with the adaptation of the new macroeconomic parameters.
Source: Ambito
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