“Our main conclusion is that, by 2030, growth in energy demand will outstrip growth in supply by about 20%, based on current trends, driven primarily by emerging economies and their efforts to develop and get their citizens out of poverty”strategists Marko Kolanovic and Christyan Malek said.
Investment should cover all fuels, including oil and gas, renewables and nuclear, as demand for oil alone is expected to grow by around 10% by 2030 and for gas by 18%. %.
“Not all fuels are the same, and for the most part (and within this time horizon), the various energy sources are not fully fungible: solar panels cannot replace oil, which is needed, for example, in industrial production. of petrochemical products, notes the outlook, to which 30 JP Morgan analysts contributed.
The research contrasts with the message from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which last year said no new investment in fossil fuels was necessary.
The IEA has since clarified that its outlook was just one of the suggested scenarios and has called on OPEC to pump more oil.
“In the very long term, all current energy sources will be seen as a transition to a safer, cleaner and cheaper source of energy. In the long term, this may only be provided by nuclear fusion”says the JP Morgan outlook.
“Until scalable, reliable, clean and affordable technologies are available, the world will have to work with all current energy sources – fossil and non-fossil – and their respective drawbacks”, he pointed.
According to the report, global spending on energy for final use will increase to 9.5% of GDP in 2022, compared to an average of 8.4% in 2015-2019.
A further rise in energy costs would mean a greater likelihood of social unrest and a slowdown in the energy transition, JP Morgan said.
Source: Ambito
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