This last point is key because in the first two months of the year the drop in exports of industrialized soybean products, such as oil and flour, was notorious, but based on high international prices and seasonal issues, the exchange rate scenario would resoundingly .
On the other hand, thanks to Vaca Muerta, the export of the various products that make up the oil-petrochemical complex reached maximum levels not seen since 2009. With almost 1.7 million tons exported between January and February of this year, the export of oil was the great driver of the complex’s foreign trade in the first two months of the year. AIn addition, exports in dollars reached seven-year highs, exceeding US$1 billion. In the same period of the previous month, this sector had contributed US$515 million.
In this context, it should be noted that Argentina does not export diesel, but that all production is destined for the needs of the domestic market.
Breaking it down month by month, according to the projections of the Rosario Stock Exchange, in April the field would contribute US$3.9 billion and adding the rest of the export complexes in Argentina, the figure would exceed US$6.9 billion.
In the same way as what was proposed a month ago, between the April-October period the field would liquidate no less than US$3.5 billion each month. Meanwhile, with the income from the soybean harvest between April and August, it would be the largest flow of foreign exchange from agriculture. In total during this period, the agro-exporters would contribute to the country a little more than US$19.5 billion.
In this context, regarding the collection of the state for export duties, the Rosario entity advances that the estimate of the contribution of DEX by the main agribusiness chains in 2022 was reduced by US$350 million in relation to the estimate March, now projected at US$10,968 million. The decrease is mainly explained by the adjustment in the volumes declared in foreign sales of soybean meal, soybean oil and corn for the 2020/21 campaign at the end of the business cycle, and by an adjustment in the 2021/2021 wheat export projections. 22.
“It is necessary to emphasize that the calculation of income from withholdings depends on the projection of the distribution in the DJVE, which differ from the moment in which the export materializes,” they explain from the BCR.
The key question that arises is that if Argentina has accumulated a record income of foreign exchange from the countryside since last year, why is this situation not being felt in the BCRA’s reserves? One of the answers is that the Argentine economy continues on a path of growth and to sustain this scenario there is a greater demand for imports to sustain that growth.
Other items that come into play and can be evidenced in the Exchange Balance of the BCRA for the first two months of the year. “The first of them is the Net Export of Services. In the first two months of 2022, it showed a negative result of US$1,313 million, almost US$1,000 million more than in the first two months of 2021. This is due, in part, to the gradual normalization of the account trips after the pandemic and, in part, to the increase in the cost of maritime freight towards the end of the previous year, which led to a greater expenditure to support the flow of foreign trade. The second item is Primary Income, which shows the payment of interest on both public and private debt, which in the first two months of the year showed a deficit of US$1,626 million, almost US$700 million more than in the same period of the year. previous year. Regarding this, it is worth mentioning that in the first two months of the year there were disbursements of interest for the loan with the IMF prior to the agreement, which explains a part of this negative balance”, they graph by way of closure from the Rosario entity.
Source: Ambito
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