- Increase in commodity prices
- financial turmoil
- trade disruptions
In this context, the IMF published in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) its economic outlook for the current year and the years to come, reflecting the impact of the aforementioned factors: The organization foresees a world economy with lower growth and higher inflation in general than what it saw six months ago. Since this source of projections is one of the most relevant worldwide for decision-making, we proceed to a brief analysis of its main points.
The IMF did not hesitate to be blunt: only in the second sentence of the flagship report did he state that “The economic consequences of the conflict [Rusia-Ucrania] will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022”. Thus, except for Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela and some countries in Asia and Africa, the IMF expects a global economic slowdown. This translated into a transversal cut in growth projections, with European nations and those neighboring those involved in the war being the most affected, as can be seen in the graph:
In global terms, a growth of 3.6% is expected for the world economy in 2022, which is 1.3 pp less than what was projected in October 2021. In terms of employment and global product, the IMF estimates that these they will not recover pre-pandemic expansion trends until at least 2026.
In the case of MERCOSUR (excluding Argentina), growth is expected to be 0.8 pp lower than that estimated in October (1.6% vs. 0.9%). Regarding our main export destinations weighted by trade volume, the main demanders of our exports would grow around 3.6% in 2022, which is 1.4 pp less than in the previous WEO estimates.
“However, the IMF raised the growth projection for our country (from 2.5% to 4%). Although this is partly due to a greater statistical drag (in the October edition it estimated growth for 2021 of 7, 5% when it ended up being 10.3%), the growth projection for this year (and subsequent years) is part of the forecasts contained in the recently signed agreement”Ecolatina explained.
Finally, at the local level, he stressed: “the consequences of the war in Ukraine are not perceived as transitory as at first. The global economic slowdown presents a risk for the region and for Argentina in particular, mitigating the favorable impact of the rise in the prices of our exports. The higher and more persistent inflation results in a growing monetary aggressiveness on the part of the main world central banks, with its consequent global financial-credit risks”.
Source: Ambito
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