Nicolás Pertierra, chief economist at the Scalabrini Ortiz Study Center, considered that it was necessary to grant the bonus for the impact on the macro. “If not, the main engine of aggregate demand falls, since consumption is 70% of activity. The paritarias take time to react, and the social programs were losing purchasing power with inflation, so you needed to compensate for it so that growth does not fall, ”he assured.
For his part, Claudio Caprarulo, director at Analytica, argued that it is a limited tool: “It is a good measure, but for the amount it is not decisive to revitalize consumption because it does not solve the income problem”. Along the same lines, Martín Burgos, an economist at the Cultural Center for Cooperation, gave his opinion: “It does not have a push effect because it is for the only time; shovels the increases of the last months”.
After the March inflation figure of 6.7%, Pertierra estimates that prices will return to a “cruising speed” of between 3 and 4% per month. “With the parity, the rise in the minimum wage and the increases in social programs you might not have to take another measure, but for that you need informal employment to start improving your purchasing power.”
Along the same lines, Burgos opined: “The poor worker is the concept to work with, with a fixed sum for the joint workers and an increase in the minimum wage so that it reaches the informal workers. It is not a matter of plans, but of salaries of those who are below. Its consumption structure is local, without an imported component, so it not only makes sense in human terms, but also in economic terms.”
As for formal workers, Caprarulo analyzed that the closing of joint ventures after the meetings of the Government with the UIA and the CGT comes in high values. “It is likely that in the second half of the year real wages will grow, despite high inflation, which may have a certain recomposition in consumption.” In this key, Burgos commented that the income gap between formal and informal workers leads to a differentiation in consumption: “Those who are in white can have a looser consumption in goods with an imported component, so it generates an impact for the external restriction.”
Therefore, this type of differentiated consumption among workers finds different limitations: on the informal side, from the fiscal point of view. “How to sustain that consumption is the big question. It would be logical for the Salary Council to meet again. But beyond the agreement with the IMF, there is no room for another bond because you do not have how to finance that deficit without generating greater imbalances in the future,” Caprarulo said. to balance, the bulk of the bonus beneficiaries will be 7.8 million informal workers.
With sustained inflation, policies such as the bonus should be maintained for the informal, Burgos considered: “It will be tied to what happens with the IMF and what you can collect. It will be difficult if the windfall income tax does not go through Congress.” According to a report by the Sarandí consulting firm, social spending may be financed by extra income from international prices and increased activity. But, he estimates that there will be an extra cost of 0.8% of GDP for energy. “If the new tax that contributes 0.41% of GDP is not approved, a waiver must be requested from the IMF”He says.
But, in addition, there is the limitation of dollars that the parity recomposition brings. “An improvement in consumption implies greater imports, and you don’t have the dollars. There is a reserve goal, with a first quarter in which you had a zero balance in accumulation”, added Caprarulo.
Source: Ambito
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