For now, the projections indicate that this year the field would contribute a record of more than US$44,000 million, but a context that also generates pressure from the rise in energy, among other key factors.
The data to take into account is that the international prices of food, metal and energy commodities will remain at “historically high” levels until the end of 2024 due to disruptions in trade and production generated by the war between Russia and Ukraine, in which represents an unprecedented “shock” since the seventies, as announced by the World Bank (WB).
“The resulting rise in food and energy prices is exacting a heavy human and economic toll, and is likely to slow progress in reducing poverty,” said Ayhan Kose, director of the Outlook Group producing the report at the World Bank, adding that “rising commodity prices are exacerbating already high inflationary pressures around the world.”
Among the various commodities, the World Bank estimates that wheat prices will advance 40% this year, a historical record in nominal terms, which will cause greater pressure, especially in developing countries that depend on food imports.
Likewise, in the energy field, oil is expected whose Brent barrel will average US$100 during the year -the highest level since 2013-, while coal and natural gas will reach historical records in Europe, with values that, in the In the case of gas, they will double those of last year.
In response to the crisis, the entity’s economists recommended that policymakers in governments and organizations focus on resolving the imbalance between supply and demand.
In addition, and along similar lines to that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank called for the design of targeted social protection programs, such as cash transfers and public works, instead of setting food and fuel subsidies.
Meanwhile, with regard strictly to Argentina, starting this week the dollars from the soybean harvest began to enter and that will be a relief in the coming weeks in a framework in which the market began to put pressure on the price of the parallel dollars.
In April it is expected that the field’s foreign exchange income exceeds US$3,000 million and from May until next August no month would show a settlement of the field below US$3,500 million.
As for the collection for withholdings, it is expected that 2022 will close around US $ 11,000 million.
From now on, all eyes are on the intention to sow wheat in a context in which the price of grains reaches maximums but so do fertilizers.
Source: Ambito
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