The switch from oil and gas to renewable forms of energy such as sun, wind and biomass, including hydrogen as energy storage, has gained massive speed worldwide. “However, we are not fast enough yet,” said energy expert Markus Wilthaner from the consulting firm McKinsey, referring to the “Global Energy Perspective 2022” study.
The climate goals of the governments are too far in the future, “but the next ten years are actually crucial. The next decade will decide whether we can get climate change under control or not. If we wait five or ten years, then we are on the right track where we can no longer correct”.
The forecasts of when peak oil will be reached, i.e. the maximum production of crude oil, have been pushed further and further forward in recent years. A few years ago, it was assumed that 2030 would be reached, but now peak oil is expected between 2024 and 2027. The coal maximum has already been reached. In contrast, global demand for gas is expected to grow for at least another 10 to 15 years. In the longer term, the most important substitutes for gas are electrification, the use of renewable energy and the introduction of green hydrogen.
McKinsey anticipates a rapid shift in the global energy mix: the share of renewable energies in power generation could double by 2035. The demand for electricity is expected to triple by 2050 because many sectors of the economy will be electrified and hydrogen will replace fossil fuels as a fuel.
The energy transition is associated with high costs, “but if you look at the total costs and compare them with the costs of doing nothing, you can see that the calculation is positive,” says Wilthaner. There will be a shift from value creation, which takes place today in petro-states, to countries that can produce renewables very cheaply – i.e. “from petro-states to electro-states”.
Source: Nachrichten
