alarms in the market for the end of summer

Now comes the thick. To pray. And about rainy, wet, local operators say, because the last Treasury auction was a wake-up call, given that the entire expiration could not be rolled over. On top of that, some are raising the specter of the reprofiling, which was created by a right-wing government! Therefore, nobody has any foreign exchange insurance. It is true that the fear of an involuntary reprofiling is not in the short term, but it will be key in 2023.

That’s why some consultants are clamoring for the Treasury to give investors what they ask for. The Government, failing to renew the maturities of the second half of April and closed the month with negative net financing of around $80,000 million, which contrasts sharply with the $315,000 million obtained in March. These numbers make the market anticipate that the Treasury will soon require assistance from the BCRA, or else liquidate Dollars drawn by the Fund.

dollar-investments

But what happened that the Treasury could not get all the pesos it needed? Very simple: it did not offer what the market wanted. And while the jump in the dollar ate much of the carry, everyone wants to be short CER, there is no other way. Nobody wants to have any role, not even one that expires in the transition, all within Alberto’s mandate and far from the “10-D” of 23.

Behind all this, the stone guest reappears, the CCL. Because in the short term the Treasury, say money market experts, will be able to get away by offering Lecer cortitas, but later in 2023 what to offer to seduce the market. And if there is a correction in the CCL due to internal factors, there will be complications, above all, due to the mass of maturities that already exist by the middle of the 23rd.

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A banker and economist who participated in the IMF-WB meetings made a very brief summary for a group of colleagues at a barbecue in San Isidro, before traveling to one of the stops on the “Melconian tour” about what the conclaves left in Washington and where the consensus shifted: most discussions were about the war, the effectiveness of sanctions, and the growing odds of an energy embargo; sentiment on eurozone growth deteriorated sharply, moving towards recession forecast (of 1% growth in 2022), concerns about possible US sanctions on China also increased, aggravating an outlook already complex amid recent capital outflows from emerging markets.

By the way, about Melconian, they say that the presentations that the economist has been making throughout the country, promoting the economic program that they are designing in the Mediterranean, are gaining more and more followers and interested parties, generating a lot of expectation that everything is lost, in reference to 2023. Don Melco anticipates in these meetings that they will present “in one” the real situation of the country that the next president will inherit, perhaps after the painful Macri-Durán Barba experience of hiding reality so as not to generate “ bad vibes”.

At the barbecue, much was said about the almost exponential growth of the manager Adcap Asset Management, which has now been in the hands of the new CEO, Damián Koltan, since last February, and which recently incorporated Julio Crespo Campos (former Santander Asset Management) as head of sales. and promoted Paula Gándara to CIO. The manager, which today has some US$500 million under management, is trying to gain market share, especially among its peers, since the business continues to be led by commercial banks, and in the corporate segment.

There was also talk of how strong the demand for gold is in the world: in the first quarter it increased to 1,234 tons, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2018; and gold ETFs had their strongest quarterly inflows since Q3 2020 with stocks rising 269 tonnes, driven by safe-haven demand.

Source: Ambito