The trip will be commanded by the Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere julie kozack and the technical manager for the country Luis Cubeddu, who will report directly to the managing director for the Western Hemisphere, the Brazilian-Israeli Illan Goldfjan, who was empowered and made responsible by the Board to address the Argentine case almost in a personalized way and as a preponderant task. One of the consequences of bringing forward the missions is that there will be one more until the end of the standby repayment program signed during the government of Mauricio Macri, and which implies that the agency meets the deadlines agreed in that agreement for two years and means, medium. As this schedule ends in the last quarter of 2024, the May mission will be added to the 10 already agreed; with which there will be 11 exams to fulfill.
The government of Alberto Fernández will have to host at least seven (and not six) of those visits. For the administration that succeeds the current one, it is ruled out that a renegotiation will have to be called. There is a certain tranquility in the government. Although it is recognized that inflation, reserves and other general variables are in crisis; in the Palacio de Hacienda it is confident that the two main goals agreed for 2022 will be fulfilled. The fiscal deficit of 2.5% would be guaranteed, while the country would grow 4% this year, in line with the commitment of a GDP increase of between 3.5 and 4.5%. In some official offices (not the Treasury) there is even hope that this year’s growth could exceed that limit and reach 5%. Thus, the Ministry of Economy is very confident that all the exams of the year (there will be three), can be achieved. With difficulty, but without applying adjustments outside of what was negotiated and discussed. And that the scenario predicted last March by the Argentine Claudio Loser, the former managing director for the Western Hemisphere of the IMF, will not be reached, who, when asked about the future Extended Facilities, said that “every three months Argentina will have to save itself of default” for its continuity. For this, the unwritten general rule of IMF missions must be taken into account.
It’s known that The Fund’s technicians who are in charge of supervising compliance with the goals will control them with a level of clockwork that has rarely been applied.. It was the explicit mandate of the IMF board on March 25, which determined that there are “extraordinary risks” in the approved Extended Facilities; which forces Washington’s regulators not to give anything to the country. When would the agreement fall due to default? Under the Fund’s statute, two consecutive quarters of default would be enough. Then a renegotiation would be opened. If the forecasts of Buenos Aires fail, the renegotiation of the agreed goals, in the event that all the variables committed to in the review of the first quarter of the year are not met, and if these are replicated in the second quarter; discussions would have to be reopened for the September mission. A politically complicated scenario for the Executive, at a time when it is ruled out that the internal debate in the ruling party for the agreement with the IMF would still be alive.
Source: Ambito
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