“The agreement with the IMF indicates that the BCRA will increase net reserves by 5,800 million dollars in the year. Given that the 4,000 million SDRs (net) received are allowed to be accounted for, almost 2,000 million remain. Although it does not seem like much, the problem is that the BCRA so far this year it is almost neutral, when last year at this point net purchases were almost 3,700 million“, expressed Roberto Geretto, from Fundcorp.
“If the trend is not reversed in the coming months and without new SDRs from the IMF, when the high season for foreign exchange settlement is over, everything points to a mix of higher stocks and greater devaluation, where a ‘waiver’ request should not be ruled out either. in this goal of the agreement,” he estimated.
“If you combine the greater difficulty in meeting the emission goal by restricting the alternative of taking on debt to finance yourself, with the impossibility of quickly accumulating foreign currency in the central bank despite being in the most favorable quarter for exports, the prospects for the second quarter of the year would be ominous to complete it, there is growing political pressure against the minister,” added VatNet Research.
“This could lead to greater economic and financial unrest, without ruling out episodes of greater volatility,” he claimed.
“There is a transition risk that has to do with the financing of the Treasury’s peso debt. The debt is being obtained today and for now the refinancing is happening, but it occurs at very short terms and is indexed,” explained Marina Dal Poggetto , from EcoGo Studio.
“If there is a political change in 2024 and changes in the economic regime begin to be discussed, what is behind that is what you do with the surplus pesos and with those contracts,” he added. “No one is buying bonds after the middle of next year,” she said. “The performance of debt placements during April was quite favorable in terms of terms, although maturities of around 70,000 million pesos could not be refinanced”said Delphos Investment.
“At the same time, an increase in the ‘spread’ of yield was observed among the titles that expire at the beginning of the next presidential period, which shows that the market has already begun to ‘price’ the pre-election uncertainty,” he added.
For the economist Gustavo Ber, “The attention of the operators continues to be directed towards the level of BCRA purchases, since it is crucial to deepen said dynamics in search of meeting the reserve accumulation goals agreed upon with the IMF.”
“Beyond the ephemeral respite on the way, the trend of sustained financial dollars continues in the face of greater demand for operator coverage, activated as a result of external caution and also local noise, all of which has already challenged the validity of the ‘carry- trade’ in the current context,” he added.
“The dollar gained strength in the world and dragged the yen and the euro to multi-year lows. In addition to this, China confined large cities due to the advance of COVID-19, further affecting the global supply chain“said Tavelli y Cia.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
