Until now, the “peso market” was a noble steed for the horsemen of the Ministry of Finance, in charge of Rafael Brigo. But he has already begun to show other spirits. Apparently he will no longer digest everything that is thrown at him, nor will he be helped with huge doses of some liver protector. For months, analysts have been trying to unravel the dangers inherent in the growing stock of Treasury debt in pesos. As at some point happened with the long-awaited Lebac, and the same with the Leliq, now the consensus tries to calm the anxieties of investors who see that the debt taximeter does not stop. At the end of the day, everyone wonders how long it lasts. That is, when the official financing strategy will begin to crack or experience serious signs of exhaustion.
Differential
So what are investors looking at, besides the peso debt roll-over? In this regard, the 1816 analysts give a clue by synthesizing the market’s fears of the presidential transition in the yield spread between the CER-adjusted Treasury bond in pesos maturing in March 2023 (TX23) and its peer maturing in March 2024 (TX24). This spread closed last week very close to 1,100 basis points when a month ago it was around 200 points. The same occurs with future or forward positions where the rate went from 3% to 14%. It is worth noting that the spread between the TX24 forward, which expires in March 2023, and the TX23 forward, which expires in mid-August 2023, that is, after the PASO but before the presidential transfer, reached 18%. Which shows that the appetite or interest of investors is to take risk in this presidential term but at the same time well away from the transition period.
How will the Treasury do in such a case to transit those months? That is the question. Because, so far, the different informal exchange rates are not expressing fears through the gap, which is already being solidified through the spread of the yields of the bonds in pesos that mature in the mandate of Alberto Fernández and where it happens. Today, the schedule of Treasury debt maturities in pesos shows that in August of this year, in March and in August of next year, the commitments in those months are close to an average of $900,000 million (at the official dollar, about u $8 billion each month). That is why it is not surprising that in the midst of all the prevailing political noise, both official and opposition, the ghosts “reprofilers” or similar hover again in the minds of investors. It is clear that the stocks are not negotiable, at least, in this government, and leaving everything in the hands of a liquidation, via devaluation, is a short straw because a large part of the public debt is indexed to inflation and the exchange rate.
Source: Ambito
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