The average of those who best forecast this variable for the short term indicates that the nominal exchange rate for December 2022 would be $152.57/US$, a figure that is below the median of the survey forecast by all the participants. ($155.00/US$), similar to the value predicted at the end of last month by those who made up the TOP-10.
The opinion of the gurus
For the analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, “the dollar will continue to be very pressured by the lack of cash, the State continues to finance itself in the internal market (it generates illiquidity), and the taxes due will force it to sell stock of merchandise, dissave in pesos or sell dollars in the market”. “The dollar for now and only for now is stable, by the end of the year it will exceed $300,” he added.
For his part, Miguel Boggiano also sees a similar rise in the dollar. “I forecast a four-digit dollar this year; yes, from 1000 pesos to a dollar”. This was stated by the economic and financial analyst Marcelo Trovato, director of Stock Market Forecast, during a broadcast made by his YouTube channel.
“The (informal) blue dollar is a haven of value that normally far exceeds inflation and that is what we are going to see over the course of the year,” he anticipated, later adding that “what is coming is not good.”
Trovato indicated that if the monetary base is considered plus the volume of Argentine pesos “sterilized” with Leliqs, the equilibrium exchange rate would be around 16,000 pesos per US dollar.
In this framework, the analyst indicated that the situation is given for a super devaluation that would generate a strong economic recession with a considerable drop in consumption.
Source: Ambito
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