“The collection of taxes associated with the internal market shows a drop of 12.4% between December 2021 and April 2022 in real terms. These figures are compatible with a decrease of around 2% of the GDP in the period”, the report points out. It states that “extrapolating these data from the start of 2022 for the rest of the year, almost half of the positive statistical drag is being liquefied with which 2021 had ended”.
Mariano Devita, economist at IERAL who prepared the study, explained to Ambit That the last year left a statistical drag of 4 GDP points with which currently “to achieve the expected growth it would be necessary to start two rungs below”.
The taxes included in the index are VAT, tariffs on imports, fuels, bank credits and debits, and personal contributions and employer contributions. It is noted that “for a base of 100 in the first quarter of 2019, in January-April 2022 the rate of taxes associated with the domestic market is 3.4% below.”
“The negative effects of the inflationary acceleration that has been observed since the end of 2021 are beginning to be felt, with a peak in March of this year in which the CPI exceeded the monthly threshold of 6% and which is not expected to drop substantially by April. ”, adds the study.
Devita stated, on the other hand, that Minister Martín Guzmán would lack the instruments to promote the activity. From your perspective the Government has closed the possibility of an expansion of spending so the recovery would have to come from the investment side. In that case, the increase in the interest rate contemplated in the agreement with the IMF also constitutes a barrier. .
“In the absence of genuine instruments of economic policy, each attempt at fiscal and monetary expansion contains the seeds of its own adjustment, either due to the acceleration of inflation that liquefies aggregate demand, or due to the lack of financing capacity for imports necessary to lubricate the supply of goods and services”, points out the IERAL
In this regard, the Center for Economic Studies Orlando Ferreres also detects a slowdown of the activity. In his latest report, he maintains that the first quarter closed with an expansion of 3.5% when compared to the same period last year, The consultant suggests that there will be specific sectors that will continue to grow, but within the framework of a general “context of stagnation”.
Instead, for the Center for Research in Finance (CIF) of the Torcuato Di Tella University, there is little chance that the economic cycle will change. Its Leading Index, which anticipates the behavior of activity in six months, indicates that there is only a 22% chance of falling into recession. In March, of the ten series that make up the Leading Index, seven showed significant positive variations: the General Index of the Stock Exchange and the Merval, both in real terms, the real VAT collection, the FOB price of soybeans, sales to dealers and the production of non-metallic minerals and basic metal industries according to the IPI- FAITHFUL.
Source: Ambito
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